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How to Bet on Baseball

This article is written because betting on baseball is different than football and basketball and most people do not understand the subtle differences. When I first started giving out free picks I would almost always bet on teams money line. I was not completely comfortable betting on run lines and told my algorithms and statistics people to monitor and develop simulation code to predict run lines.

Anyways, as soon as I posted run line bets many of my loyal followers/visitors/customers would ask me what the run line was. I was shocked but still understood the confusion. There are still money line odds in basketball and football betting so understanding money line betting baseball requires no extra knowledge. The Run Line however is unique to baseball.

The run line is baseball's version of the spread. Since the scores in baseball are so low, the spread is always -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog. Since the probabilities of teams beating the run line are different, even the run lines have their own odds associated with it.

For the most part, you can turn a baseball favorite on the money line into an underdog on the run line. So this is a less risky option for most bettors.

The over/unders in baseball are also not very confusing because we are able to bet on totals on football and basketball.

Another subtle difference to betting baseball is the Listed Pitcher vs. Action options. When you bet on a baseball game, you are getting the odds on the game based on the listed pitchers pitching. What if the pitcher changes? What if you have Randy Johnson at -300 and he gets hurt just before game time and you have a scrub in Tanyon Sturtze pitching. If you select the game as "action", you are stuck with your bet regardless of who is pitching. If you select the game as "listed" then your bet on the game is only valid if the pitchers listed pitch.

The general rule I follow is I take all underdogs as action and all favorites listed. I generally bet on favorites because they have a dominant and far superior pitching and I want their pitcher to pitch for it to be valid, therefore I take them listed.

The last thing to note is that if a game is called early due to rain, your over/under bet is no longer valid. Even if the game is called in the 7th inning with a total of score lets say 11. Even if you bet the over on a total that was 8 or 9 for example, the bet is still invalid because the game did not complete in its entirety.

All the information posted on this site are as a result of our 10 year's of research and analysis.

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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