The Boston Red Sox were the hottest story two years ago when they won the world series. The Yankees almost collapsed last season but still took the division from these Redsox. Will the 2006 MLB season be the year the Redsox get the AL East crown and will they continue to play second fiddle to the Yankees?
We are projecting them to win the division outright and show the Yankees that it is not their division every year. The Red Sox finished the 2005 regular season with a 95-67 +5 units record. I guess nobody really cares when you realize that they got swept in the playoffs but nonetheless they had a decent year that was also profitable for their backers.
The Red Sox are always in the national spotlight and get extra betting action because of it but is it always justified. Well, at home it is. The past 3 regular seasons, the Red Sox have combined for a 162-81 +30 units record.
These Red Sox have been a strong money-maker at home the past 3 seasons. Conversely, betting against them when they are on the road has been a great money maker. This is true of most high profile teams. The oddsmakers are content to let the public win betting on the team at home in order for them to get that money back when they are on the road.
Pyschologically, Vegas is doing the right thing. If you see Matt Clement at home with a -240 spread, you are likely to bet small but if you see Matt Clement on the road as a -135 you are likely to pound it. The number of units won at home roughly equals the number of units lost on the road by the Redsox but I can guarantee that the Redsox take in more betting handle on the road than at home.
It will not be enough to simply bet on the Red Sox at home. Let's look at one such situation that betting on the Redsox at home is just unstoppable. This is against right handers. Over the past 3 seasons, the Redsox are 116-50 +38 in home games against right handers. This correlates to a losing trend at home against left handers. It is very important to look into these small details when analyzing a baseball game.
As you bet the 2006 MLB season, look for the Red Sox at home against right handed pitching to give you some wins and we will analyze how this all plays out during the season.
2007 Article Coming Soon...
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