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Sometimes Game 6 beats Game 7's

by David Pincus
2006-06-02

As you prepare to watch Game 6 of Miami/Detroit and Game 6 of Dallas/Phoenix, we can help but instinctively hope for a Game 7 (no matter who we’re rooting for). Yet as we near a possible duo of Game 7’s, we probably shouldn’t be too excited: not when the better game is right before us.

Game 6 of Miami/Detroit could be the best game we’ve seen in the Conference Finals yet. Despite all the glamour, Game 7’s are usually blowouts and aren’t too interesting to watch. Game 6’s usually provide more competition. A situation where the road team needs to win to avoid elimination and the home team wants to win avoid playing Game 7 on the road is the best type of scenario.

So far we’ve had three instances of that situation in a Game 6. In round 1, Phoenix went to LA and won in OT thanks to a Tim Thomas three near the end of regulation. In round 2, Detroit barely escaped from the Cavaliers when they grabbed four consecutive offensive rebounds in the final minute to seal a victory. Also there was the Mavs/Spurs series, where San Antonio won by 5 thanks to Michael Finley showing up in the clutch.

There have been four Game 7’s in this postseason so far. And while the games leading up to them were great, the series finales weren’t as captivating. Lakers/Suns was dry with Kobe refusing to shoot in the second half (the Suns won by 31). Clippers/Suns wasn’t as enormous a blowout but slowly became one nonetheless (the Suns won by 20). Cleveland/Detroit displayed LeBron James, but his team’s inability to put points on the board as well (the Pistons won by 18).

The one exception was Dallas/San Antonio Game 7 where the Mavericks pulled off a 119-111 win in overtime. Of course that series will go down as one of the best playoff series in NBA history.

If Detroit is to somehow win on the road tonight, it’s possible that the next game could follow the path of those previous series. So far the closest game in this series was Game 2 where Detroit won by 4. However the game wasn’t really that close and only ended that way because the Heat scored some points in garbage time.

If there is a Game 7 in that series, it’s unlikely that the final game will suddenly emerge as a close, climactic thriller. I can’t say the same for Phoenix/Dallas, which seems to have been geared for a long series from the start. However if Dallas wins in Game 6, there won’t be a Game 7 to talk about.

 

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Updated: 10/13/11

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Diamondbacks 94-68 +27.70
Brewers 96-66 +20.77
Tigers 95-67 +19.91
Phillies 102-60 +14.30
Rangers 96-66 +13.34
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Home
Brewers 57-24 +25.23
Diamondbacks 51-30 +13.96
Rangers 52-29 +7.69
Tigers 50-31 +7.61
Yankees 52-29 +7.38
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Road
Mets 43-38 +17.61
Diamondbacks 43-38 +13.74
Tigers 45-36 +12.30
Cardinals 45-36 +10.67
White Sox 43-38 +10.61
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vs Righty
Diamondbacks 70-44 +29.54
Brewers 78-48 +23.42
Rangers 70-45 +13.60
Tigers 65-47 +12.66
Cardinals 71-52 +8.41
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vs Lefty
D'rays 31-19 +14.26
Yankees 34-17 +12.92
Phillies 30-13 +9.49
Tigers 30-20 +7.25
Giants 26-18 +6.32
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