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2005 Offensive Decline in Baseball

Total runs scored in the 2005 Baseball season was at one of the lowest points in the past decade last season. This brings about new baseball betting systems and tears apart others. With scoring expected to be lower this season (due to the new steroids policies), the 2006 MLB season could play out very similarly to the 2005 season, so let us look at some systems involving scoring that was very prevalent in the 2005 season and add it to our arsenal for betting on baseball.

Teams off of shutout losses in the 2005 MLB season were a combined 144-117 (+27 Units). A very impressive display for teams that struggled its previous game. But what if the team that got shutout is just really bad offensively or is currently stuck in a hitting slump? So we looked at a smaller subset of all these teams whose average number of runs scored in its previous 6 games was less than 2.5. We found that they bounced back off of a shut out loss with a 17-17 record (-0.6 Units). Not worthy of a bet.

So we constricted our 2005 MLB system to only bet on team's whose average number of runs scored in its previous 6 games to be greater than 3.5 and found ourself a system that went 91-57 (+35.2 units).

We wanted to see if it made a difference if the team that shut them out was the very same team they were playing or if our team was playing another team. There was no difference.

We analyzed to see if there was a difference between home and road performance, What we found will astonish you. Even though the system was profitable for road teams, it was a ridiculous 51-20 for the team if they were at home.

So as you look to bet on the 2006 MLB season, make sure you examine which of the home teams having decent offenses will be looking for a bounce back game.

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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