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« Based on Pitching  |  Back to Guide  | Game 1 of a Series »

Guide to Betting Baseball Based on Hitting

I think it is an obvious statement to make that teams that hit well in baseball win games. This is because you determine a winner based on who scores more runs. But the issue is how to predict that a team will be able to score more runs. Is it as easy as whoever is scoring a lot of runs will win their next game.

Well, let's see how teams do after coming off of scoring certain number of runs in their previous game:

• 0 runs: [961-975, +15 units, 0.78]
• 1 run: [1737-1869, -114 units, -3.2]
• 2 runs: [2329-2365, -60 units, -1.3]
• 3 runs: [2571-2614, -125 units, - 2.5]
• 4 runs: [2502-2552, -132 units, -2.6]
• 5 runs: [2260-2249, -133 units, -2.9]
• 6 runs: [1902-1911, -165 units, -4.3]
• 7 runs: [1500-1486, -132 units, -4.4]
• 8 runs: [1130-1090, -24 units, -1.1]
• 9 runs: [800-802, -92 units, -5.7]
• 10+ runs: [1872-1653, +37 units, +1.1]

As you can see... it is only really possible to bet blindly on teams scoring double digit runs or coming off of a shutout. Teams off of a shutout are in a bounceback situation. Teams off double digit performance are just playing so well that they tend to come back and win.

Another important thing to note with respect to hitting is that baseball hitters hate having to face a lefty after a righty and vice versa. Here we test the different possibilities with respect to the last and current game.

• LL - [1035-1044, -69 units, -3.3]
• LR - [4055-4059, -179 units, -2.2]
• RL - [3923-4194, -440 units, -5.4]
• RR - [10516-10237, -239 units, -1.1]

As you can see, it is the toughest for a team to face a lefty after facing a righty. In facing, the difference in facing a lefty after a right versus after a lefty is clearly 2.1 points on the moneyline according to the statistics above.