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« Based on Pitching  |  Back to Guide  | Game 1 of a Series »

Guide to Betting Baseball Based on Hitting

I think it is an obvious statement to make that teams that hit well in baseball win games. This is because you determine a winner based on who scores more runs. But the issue is how to predict that a team will be able to score more runs. Is it as easy as whoever is scoring a lot of runs will win their next game.

Well, let's see how teams do after coming off of scoring certain number of runs in their previous game:

  • 0 runs: [961-975, +15 units, 0.78]
  • 1 run: [1737-1869, -114 units, -3.2]
  • 2 runs: [2329-2365, -60 units, -1.3]
  • 3 runs: [2571-2614, -125 units, - 2.5]
  • 4 runs: [2502-2552, -132 units, -2.6]
  • 5 runs: [2260-2249, -133 units, -2.9]
  • 6 runs: [1902-1911, -165 units, -4.3]
  • 7 runs: [1500-1486, -132 units, -4.4]
  • 8 runs: [1130-1090, -24 units, -1.1]
  • 9 runs: [800-802, -92 units, -5.7]
  • 10+ runs: [1872-1653, +37 units, +1.1]

As you can see... it is only really possible to bet blindly on teams scoring double digit runs or coming off of a shutout. Teams off of a shutout are in a bounceback situation. Teams off double digit performance are just playing so well that they tend to come back and win.

Another important thing to note with respect to hitting is that baseball hitters hate having to face a lefty after a righty and vice versa. Here we test the different possibilities with respect to the last and current game.

  • LL - [1035-1044, -69 units, -3.3]
  • LR - [4055-4059, -179 units, -2.2]
  • RL - [3923-4194, -440 units, -5.4]
  • RR - [10516-10237, -239 units, -1.1]

As you can see, it is the toughest for a team to face a lefty after facing a righty. In facing, the difference in facing a lefty after a right versus after a lefty is clearly 2.1 points on the moneyline according to the statistics above.

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Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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