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Guide to Betting Baseball Favorites

Here is how favorites have done under the following stresses.

  • Overall [11785-8735, -782.32] (-0.038)
  • 1st Half of Season [5742-4359, -402.44] (-0.040)
  • 2nd half of season [5897-4255, -348.06] (-0.034)
  • National League [6204-4748, -490.79] (-0.045)
  • American League [5581-3987, -291.53] (-0.030)
  • Divsional Rival [4875-3778, -603.42] (-0.070)
  • Non-Divsional Rival [5655-4085, -202.94] (-0.021)
  • Interleague Game [1255-872, 24.04] (0.011)
  • Off a win [6488-4745, -443.23] (-0.039)
  • Off a loss [5228-3937, -323.33] (-0.035)
  • Off being shut out [505-360, -6.70] (-0.008)
  • Off scoring DD [1238-849, -6.34] (-0.003)
  • Series Game 1 [3707-2860, -391.34] (-0.060)
  • Series Game 2 [3769-2732, -146.81] (-0.023)
  • Series Game 3 [3432-2505, -180.84] (-0.030)
  • Series Game 4 [665-469, -24.78] (-0.022)
  • At Home [7825-5571, -477.06] (-0.036)
  • On the Road [3960-3164, -305.26] (-0.043)
  • In the Playoffs [146-121, -31.82] (-0.119)
  • Off LL [2412-1804, -101.14] (-0.024)
  • Off WW [3586-2541, -191.52] (-0.031)
  • 5+ WL10 [8073-5755, -377.86] (-0.027)
  • 7+ WL10 [2963-2045, -144.47] (-0.029)
  • <=3 WL10 [1798-1479, -216.10] (-0.066)
  • <=5 WL10 [6222-4860, -581.43] (-0.052)
  • Against team off SO [647-499, -87.95] (-0.077)
  • Vs. team off DD runs [882-713, -118.48] (-0.074)
  • Vs. team off W (G1) [1664-1409, -334.54] (-0.109)
  • Vs. team off L (G1) [2040-1449, -57.45] (-0.016)
  • Off W (G1) [2027-1510, -157.45] (-0.045)
  • Off L (G1) [1680-1350, -233.89] (-0.077)

Here are the Need-to-Knows

  • Divisional rivalry favorites are the worst to bet on. Interleague favorites are the best. There is an 8 point difference in the value of the spreads with respect to these two propositions.
  • Favorites do the worst in the first game of a series. Approximately 3-4 points overvalued compared to the rest of the games in the series.
  • Favorites in the playoffs are overvalued by about 12 points a game, thanks to the increased betting action of the public.
  • Favorites playing against teams off a shutout or off double digit scores are about 4 points overvalued.
  • If a favorite is playing a team off of a win in the first game of a series, they are about 9 points overvalued than if they were going against a team off a loss.

Here are our betting systems with respect to favorites.

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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