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Guide to Betting Baseball Favorites

Here is how favorites have done under the following stresses.

• Overall [11785-8735, -782.32] (-0.038)
• 1st Half of Season [5742-4359, -402.44] (-0.040)
• 2nd half of season [5897-4255, -348.06] (-0.034)
• National League [6204-4748, -490.79] (-0.045)
• American League [5581-3987, -291.53] (-0.030)
• Divsional Rival [4875-3778, -603.42] (-0.070)
• Non-Divsional Rival [5655-4085, -202.94] (-0.021)
• Interleague Game [1255-872, 24.04] (0.011)
• Off a win [6488-4745, -443.23] (-0.039)
• Off a loss [5228-3937, -323.33] (-0.035)
• Off being shut out [505-360, -6.70] (-0.008)
• Off scoring DD [1238-849, -6.34] (-0.003)
• Series Game 1 [3707-2860, -391.34] (-0.060)
• Series Game 2 [3769-2732, -146.81] (-0.023)
• Series Game 3 [3432-2505, -180.84] (-0.030)
• Series Game 4 [665-469, -24.78] (-0.022)
• At Home [7825-5571, -477.06] (-0.036)
• On the Road [3960-3164, -305.26] (-0.043)
• In the Playoffs [146-121, -31.82] (-0.119)
• Off LL [2412-1804, -101.14] (-0.024)
• Off WW [3586-2541, -191.52] (-0.031)
• 5+ WL10 [8073-5755, -377.86] (-0.027)
• 7+ WL10 [2963-2045, -144.47] (-0.029)
• <=3 WL10 [1798-1479, -216.10] (-0.066)
• <=5 WL10 [6222-4860, -581.43] (-0.052)
• Against team off SO [647-499, -87.95] (-0.077)
• Vs. team off DD runs [882-713, -118.48] (-0.074)
• Vs. team off W (G1) [1664-1409, -334.54] (-0.109)
• Vs. team off L (G1) [2040-1449, -57.45] (-0.016)
• Off W (G1) [2027-1510, -157.45] (-0.045)
• Off L (G1) [1680-1350, -233.89] (-0.077)

Here are the Need-to-Knows

• Divisional rivalry favorites are the worst to bet on. Interleague favorites are the best. There is an 8 point difference in the value of the spreads with respect to these two propositions.
• Favorites do the worst in the first game of a series. Approximately 3-4 points overvalued compared to the rest of the games in the series.
• Favorites in the playoffs are overvalued by about 12 points a game, thanks to the increased betting action of the public.
• Favorites playing against teams off a shutout or off double digit scores are about 4 points overvalued.
• If a favorite is playing a team off of a win in the first game of a series, they are about 9 points overvalued than if they were going against a team off a loss.

Here are our betting systems with respect to favorites.

• Baseball favorites to avoid betting.
• Capitalizing on motivated favorites.
• Systems for betting on favorites
• Capitalizing on road favorites in game 4 of a series.
• Motivated home favorites system.
• Road favorites in interleague games system
• Road favorites in non-division rivalry games system.
• Small home favorites system.