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« Based on Hitting  |  Back to Guide  | Game 2 of a Series »

Guide to Betting Baseball Game 1 of a Series

Here are how teams in the first game of a series have done under certain stresses.

  • 1st Half of Season [3109-3116, -147.43] (-0.024)
  • 2nd half of season [3065-3057, -149.68] (-0.024)
  • As a dog [2596-3445, 82.51] (0.014)
  • As a favorite [3707-2860, -391.34] (-0.060)
  • Off a win [3293-3042, 14.93] (0.002)
  • Off a loss [3010-3263, -323.76] (-0.052)
  • Off being shut out [315-311, 10.93] (0.017)
  • Off scoring DD [589-546, -12.87] (-0.011)
  • At Home [3390-2915, -158.70] (-0.025)
  • On the Road [2913-3390, -150.13] (-0.024)
  • In the Playoffs [129-132, -11.72] (-0.045)
  • Off LL [1487-1715, -224.23] (-0.070)
  • Off WW [1723-1524, 49.54] (0.015)
  • 5+ WL10 [3940-3622, -115.79] (-0.015)
  • 7+ WL10 [1306-1118, -37.75] (-0.016)
  • <=3 WL10 [1266-1507, -128.78] (-0.046)
  • <=5 WL10 [3793-4093, -251.94] (-0.032)
  • Against team off SO [310-315, -39.62] (-0.063)
  • Vs. team off DD runs [545-589, -43.28] (-0.038)
  • Vs. team off W (G1) [3039-3292, -331.73] (-0.052)
  • Vs. team off L (G1) [3261-3008, 25.25] (0.004)

Here are the Need-to-Knows:

  1. The favorites of the first game of a series are overvalued by about 7.5 points as compared to underdogs.
  2. Teams perform 5 points better in Game 1 of a series if they are heading into it off a win as opposed to a loss.
  3. A team is 2 points worse if heading into the game off of two straight losses as compared to generically any given loss. The team is 2 points stronger if heading into the game off of 2 straight wins as compared to a single win. This means that the result of the game prior to game 1 of a series is worth 5 points to the spread. The second game before is worth another 2 points to the spread.

Here are some of the betting systems with respect to game 1 of a series that we have written.

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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