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« Based on Hitting  |  Back to Guide  | Game 2 of a Series »

Guide to Betting Baseball Game 1 of a Series

Here are how teams in the first game of a series have done under certain stresses.

  • 1st Half of Season [3109-3116, -147.43] (-0.024)
  • 2nd half of season [3065-3057, -149.68] (-0.024)
  • As a dog [2596-3445, 82.51] (0.014)
  • As a favorite [3707-2860, -391.34] (-0.060)
  • Off a win [3293-3042, 14.93] (0.002)
  • Off a loss [3010-3263, -323.76] (-0.052)
  • Off being shut out [315-311, 10.93] (0.017)
  • Off scoring DD [589-546, -12.87] (-0.011)
  • At Home [3390-2915, -158.70] (-0.025)
  • On the Road [2913-3390, -150.13] (-0.024)
  • In the Playoffs [129-132, -11.72] (-0.045)
  • Off LL [1487-1715, -224.23] (-0.070)
  • Off WW [1723-1524, 49.54] (0.015)
  • 5+ WL10 [3940-3622, -115.79] (-0.015)
  • 7+ WL10 [1306-1118, -37.75] (-0.016)
  • <=3 WL10 [1266-1507, -128.78] (-0.046)
  • <=5 WL10 [3793-4093, -251.94] (-0.032)
  • Against team off SO [310-315, -39.62] (-0.063)
  • Vs. team off DD runs [545-589, -43.28] (-0.038)
  • Vs. team off W (G1) [3039-3292, -331.73] (-0.052)
  • Vs. team off L (G1) [3261-3008, 25.25] (0.004)

Here are the Need-to-Knows:

  1. The favorites of the first game of a series are overvalued by about 7.5 points as compared to underdogs.
  2. Teams perform 5 points better in Game 1 of a series if they are heading into it off a win as opposed to a loss.
  3. A team is 2 points worse if heading into the game off of two straight losses as compared to generically any given loss. The team is 2 points stronger if heading into the game off of 2 straight wins as compared to a single win. This means that the result of the game prior to game 1 of a series is worth 5 points to the spread. The second game before is worth another 2 points to the spread.

Here are some of the betting systems with respect to game 1 of a series that we have written.

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Updated: 10/13/11

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Diamondbacks 94-68 +27.70
Brewers 96-66 +20.77
Tigers 95-67 +19.91
Phillies 102-60 +14.30
Rangers 96-66 +13.34
Full Table >>
Home
Brewers 57-24 +25.23
Diamondbacks 51-30 +13.96
Rangers 52-29 +7.69
Tigers 50-31 +7.61
Yankees 52-29 +7.38
Full Table >>
Road
Mets 43-38 +17.61
Diamondbacks 43-38 +13.74
Tigers 45-36 +12.30
Cardinals 45-36 +10.67
White Sox 43-38 +10.61
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Diamondbacks 70-44 +29.54
Brewers 78-48 +23.42
Rangers 70-45 +13.60
Tigers 65-47 +12.66
Cardinals 71-52 +8.41
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
D'rays 31-19 +14.26
Yankees 34-17 +12.92
Phillies 30-13 +9.49
Tigers 30-20 +7.25
Giants 26-18 +6.32
Full Table >>

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