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« Based on Hitting | Back to Guide | Game 2 of a Series » Guide to Betting Baseball Game 1 of a Series
Here are how teams in the first game of a series have done under certain stresses.
- 1st Half of Season [3109-3116, -147.43] (-0.024)
- 2nd half of season [3065-3057, -149.68] (-0.024)
- As a dog [2596-3445, 82.51] (0.014)
- As a favorite [3707-2860, -391.34] (-0.060)
- Off a win [3293-3042, 14.93] (0.002)
- Off a loss [3010-3263, -323.76] (-0.052)
- Off being shut out [315-311, 10.93] (0.017)
- Off scoring DD [589-546, -12.87] (-0.011)
- At Home [3390-2915, -158.70] (-0.025)
- On the Road [2913-3390, -150.13] (-0.024)
- In the Playoffs [129-132, -11.72] (-0.045)
- Off LL [1487-1715, -224.23] (-0.070)
- Off WW [1723-1524, 49.54] (0.015)
- 5+ WL10 [3940-3622, -115.79] (-0.015)
- 7+ WL10 [1306-1118, -37.75] (-0.016)
- <=3 WL10 [1266-1507, -128.78] (-0.046)
- <=5 WL10 [3793-4093, -251.94] (-0.032)
- Against team off SO [310-315, -39.62] (-0.063)
- Vs. team off DD runs [545-589, -43.28] (-0.038)
- Vs. team off W (G1) [3039-3292, -331.73] (-0.052)
- Vs. team off L (G1) [3261-3008, 25.25] (0.004)
Here are the Need-to-Knows:
- The favorites of the first game of a series are overvalued by about 7.5 points as compared to underdogs.
- Teams perform 5 points better in Game 1 of a series if they are heading into it off a win as opposed to a loss.
- A team is 2 points worse if heading into the game off of two straight losses as compared to generically any given loss. The team is 2 points stronger if heading into the game off of 2 straight wins as compared to a single win. This means that the result of the game prior to game 1 of a series is worth 5 points to the spread. The second game before is worth another 2 points to the spread.
Here are some of the betting systems with respect to game 1 of a series that we have written.
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Updated: 8/24/09
NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities
Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.
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