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« Game 1 of a Series  |  Back to Guide  | Game 3 of a Series »

Guide to Betting Baseball Game 2 of a Series

Here is how teams in the second game of a series have done.

  • As a dog [2455-3495, -142.51] (-0.024)
  • As a favorite [3769-2732, -146.81] (-0.023)
  • Off a win [3182-3044, -217.21] (-0.035)
  • Off a loss [3044-3184, -70.11] (-0.011)
  • Off being shut out [307-308, 21.19] (0.034)
  • Off scoring DD [605-503, 36.52] (0.033)
  • At Home [3411-2817, -14.60] (-0.002)
  • On the Road [2815-3411, -272.72] (-0.044)
  • Off LL [1566-1657, 18.75] (0.006)
  • Off WW [1655-1597, -198.20] (-0.061)
  • 5+ WL10 [3868-3580, -121.91] (-0.016)
  • 7+ WL10 [1280-1091, -52.60] (-0.022)
  • <=3 WL10 [1226-1420, -63.36] (-0.024)
  • <=5 WL10 [3661-4037, -319.58] (-0.042)
  • Against team off SO [308-307, -51.09] (-0.083)
  • Vs. team off DD runs [503-606, -92.55] (-0.083)

Here are the Need-to-Knows:

  1. If the teams is heading into the second game of a series off of a win, they are generally worth about 2.5 points LESS than if they were to go into the game off a loss. So a loss is better in this case. In fact, if our team is off of two consecutive wins, they are 6 points LESS than if they were off of two consecutive losses. This is just a product of the fact that teams in these situations are more "desperate".
  2. If our team scored double digit runs, they are worth about 5 points on the spread than if they did not. So basically the team off of a loss has the advantage (according to #1) but not if their opponent scored double digit runs against them in Game 1. This makes a great deal of sense. Think about it. If a team gives up that many runs, chances are their entire bullpen got wasted and was used up. A slight advantage then goes to the other team. And then you also have the obvious realization that if a team is scoring that many runs, chances are that they are good and have momentum on their side to score more.

Here are the betting systems we have written with respect to the second game of a series.

(more will be written)

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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