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« Game 3 of a Series  |  Back to Guide  | on the Playoffs »

Guide to Betting Baseball Game 4 of a Series

Here are how teams in the fourth game of a series do:

  • As a dog [420-616, -28.39] (-0.027)
  • As a favorite [665-469, -24.78] (-0.022)
  • Off a win [541-544, -61.67] (-0.057)
  • Off a loss [544-541, 8.50] (0.008)
  • Off being shut out [67-48, 22.76] (0.198)
  • Off scoring DD [107-72, 29.92] (0.167)
  • At Home [567-518, -59.98] (-0.055)
  • On the Road [518-567, 6.81] (0.006)
  • Off LL [262-292, -7.40] (-0.013)
  • Off WW [292-262, -20.08] (-0.036)
  • 5+ WL10 [706-623, -2.43] (-0.002)
  • 7+ WL10 [218-176, -10.66] (-0.027)
  • <=3 WL10 [189-244, -24.52] (-0.057)
  • <=5 WL10 [618-703, -58.94] (-0.045)
  • Against team off SO [48-67, -29.96] (-0.261)
  • Vs. team off DD runs [72-107, -38.25] (-0.214)

Here are some Need-to-Knows

  • Interleague teams don't play 4 game series'.
  • The road team in the fourth game of a series has a 6 point advantage over the home team in the game. This is because as the series wears on, the home field advatage goes to inconsequential in the fourth game. This is because the effects of travel on the road team does not exist. The familiarity with the fans and ball park no longer rests solely on the home team. And the road team generally takes the game more seriously because they always want to end a road series with a win to take some momentum to their next series.
  • Teams that were shut out in game 2 do poorly in game 3 but they do incredibly well in the fourth game of a series.
  • Teams that score double digit runs in game 3 are also very strong bets in the fourth game of a series. Because by the time you get to the fourth game of a series, status quo dominates.

Here are some articles and betting systems with respect to the fourth game of a series.

(more will be written)

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Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Updated: 7/4/09

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Overall
Dodgers 51-29 +16.88
Red Sox 48-31 +9.00
Giants 43-36 +8.87
Angels 43-35 +8.78
Rangers 43-35 +8.33
Full Table >>
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Home
Giants 25-12 +12.10
Tigers 23-11 +9.26
Red Sox 25-11 +8.60
Dodgers 28-13 +8.41
Devil Rays 26-13 +6.63
Full Table >>
Road
Phillies 26-15 +14.27
White Sox 22-18 +9.78
Dodgers 23-16 +8.47
Rockies 24-22 +8.29
Angels 22-19 +7.25
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Dodgers 34-20 +11.07
Rockies 29-23 +8.58
Angels 31-25 +6.87
Devil Rays 30-21 +5.91
Twins 29-23 +4.77
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Marlins 18-9 +10.97
Brewers 13-8 +6.62
Red Sox 17-9 +6.22
Tigers 15-9 +6.02
Dodgers 17-9 +5.81
Full Table >>

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