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Guide to Betting Baseball Road Underdogs
Here is how road underdogs have done.
- 1st Half of Season [2590-3691, -102.53] (-0.016)
- 2nd half of season [2480-3611, -53.63] (-0.009)
- National League [2808-3998, -105.18] (-0.015)
- American League [2341-3409, -42.43] (-0.007)
- Divsional Rival [2193-3030, 96.22] (0.018)
- Non-Divsional Rival [2435-3538, -127.57] (-0.021)
- Interleague Game [521-839, -116.26] (-0.085)
- As a dog [5149-7407, -147.61] (-0.012)
- Off a win [2302-3152, 25.33] (0.005)
- Off a loss [2812-4209, -179.34] (-0.026)
- Off being shut out [304-432, 3.95] (0.005)
- Off scoring DD [444-541, 66.99] (0.068)
- Series Game 1 [1692-2346, 27.17] (0.007)
- Series Game 2 [1577-2398, -162.40] (-0.041)
- Series Game 3 [1492-2141, -48.81] (-0.013)
- Series Game 4 [273-393, 1.35] (0.002)
- On the Road [5149-7407, -147.61] (-0.012)
- In the Playoffs [79-105, 8.55] (0.046)
- Off LL [1558-2422, -157.79] (-0.040)
- Off WW [1057-1495, -67.54] (-0.026)
- 5+ WL10 [2760-3801, -37.18] (-0.006)
- 7+ WL10 [748-980, 1.19] (0.001)
- <=3 WL10 [1354-2057, -34.56] (-0.010)
- <=5 WL10 [3476-5177, -161.89] (-0.019)
- Against team off SO [214-305, -7.35] (-0.014)
- Vs. team off DD runs [495-759, -45.92] (-0.037)
- Vs. team off W (G1) [899-1264, 13.55] (0.006)
- Vs. team off L (G1) [793-1080, 15.62] (0.008)
- Off W (G1) [856-1040, 148.26] (0.078)
- Off L (G1) [836-1306, -121.09] (-0.057)
Here are the Need-to-Knows:
- Interleague road dogs are 10.3 points overvalued as compared to divisional rivalry road dogs. See our betting on interleague games guide to see why.
- There is 3 more points of value when taking these teams off of a win. Momentum goes a long way in baseball and when you are betting an underdog, you rather put your money on a team that has been winning than on a team that has been losing.
- These teams are the worst in the second game of a series. 5 points more overvalued as comparent to game 1.
- These teams do well after scoring double digit runs. As we said in #2, momentum goes a long way. And you are best advised to bet on teams that are scoring in bunches than on a team struggling to score runs. The caveat to all of that is when this team is off of being shut out, they practically break even. But a lot of that has to do with being undervalued by the sportsbooks than on a really true gain in advantage.
- These teams tend to be a pretty good bet in the first game of a series if they are coming off of a win. And a horrible bet if going into the series off a loss. There is a 14 point difference in the value associated with the team off of a win than off of a loss. Look at #2 for similar reasoning. Or read more at the Game 1 of a series guide.
See all of our betting systems on road underdogs.
(more will be written soon)
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