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Guide to Betting Baseball Underdogs

Betting on baseball underdogs is one of the most common betting angles in baseball. We ask that all of you be sure to always bet on them.

Look at the underdogs statistics over the past 8 seasons.

  • 1st Half of Season [3974-5361, -38.51] (-0.004)
  • 2nd half of season [3812-5448, -125.52] (-0.014)
  • National League [4247-5777, -75.14] (-0.007)
  • American League [3648-5170, -75.30] (-0.009)
  • Divsional Rival [3414-4513, 191.10] (0.024)
  • Non-Divsional Rival [3680-5250, -230.26] (-0.026)
  • Interleague Game [801-1184, -111.28] (-0.056)
  • As a dog [7895-10947, -150.44] (-0.008)
  • Off a win [3574-4786, 6.75] (0.001)
  • Off a loss [4269-6095, -170.08] (-0.016)
  • Off being shut out [456-614, 21.88] (0.020)
  • Off scoring DD [634-804, 43.58] (0.030)
  • Series Game 1 [2596-3445, 82.51] (0.014)
  • Series Game 2 [2455-3495, -142.51] (-0.024)
  • Series Game 3 [2262-3192, -92.24] (-0.017)
  • Series Game 4 [420-616, -28.39] (-0.027)

Here are some need-to-knows about betting underdogs:

  1. Underdogs have 3 points more value than favorites.
  2. Blindly betting the underdogs the past two seasons in the second half of the season would have won you +34 units but betting on them the first half of the season would have lost you 58 units. As the season progresses, the public gets more involved and bets more. This inflates the odds on the favorite and thus makes the underdog a better value pick.
  3. Divisional rivalry dogs have 6 points more value than non-divisional rivalry dogs.
  4. Home and road dogs are about evenly valued. It does not matter whether you are at home or on the road. The value that a play has more to do with other factors such as pitching, situations, and where the public is putting its money.
  5. It is generally believed that AL dogs do better than NL dogs because the designated hitter can counteract good pitching. But this simply is not true overall. Yes, there are cases where AL dogs do better than NL dogs like when they are on a roll offensively. The DH allows them to keep momentum going but other than that, its even across both teams.

We have written plenty of articles on underdogs so please take a look at them.

And see our other guide articles related to this subject.

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Free Football Picks

Updated: 10/27/12

NEW: Pitcher Home/Road Disparities

Bold indicates team falls into that angle today.

Overall
Orioles 93-69 +41.76
Athletics 94-68 +40.30
Nationals 98-64 +27.78
Giants 94-68 +23.57
Reds 97-65 +20.87
Full Table >>
Home
Athletics 50-31 +20.95
Orioles 47-34 +14.14
Nationals 50-31 +12.19
Reds 50-31 +8.39
Giants 48-33 +8.34
Full Table >>
Road
Orioles 46-35 +27.62
Athletics 44-37 +19.35
Braves 46-35 +16.83
Nationals 48-33 +15.59
Giants 46-35 +15.23
Full Table >>
vs Righty
Athletics 64-39 +34.98
Orioles 67-52 +28.93
Braves 65-38 +25.38
Nationals 70-45 +21.99
Reds 65-49 +6.64
Full Table >>
vs Lefty
Giants 41-20 +24.22
Reds 32-16 +14.23
Orioles 26-17 +12.83
Cardinals 31-17 +9.96
Nationals 28-19 +5.79
Full Table >>

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