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Guide to Betting Baseball on Bad Teams

This is how teams below a 40% record play under the following situations.

• 1st Half of Season [972-1315, -118.06] (-0.052)
• 2nd half of season [720-971, 71.00] (0.042)
• National League [785-1005, -26.15] (-0.015)
• American League [907-1281, -20.91] (-0.010)
• Divsional Rival [680-835, 100.44] (0.066)
• Non-Divsional Rival [795-1164, -134.76] (-0.069)
• Interleague Game [217-287, -12.74] (-0.025)
• As a dog [1281-1925, -4.95] (-0.002)
• As a favorite [411-361, -42.11] (-0.055)
• Off a win [631-788, 21.79] (0.015)
• Off a loss [1061-1498, -68.85] (-0.027)
• Off being shut out [116-142, 26.28] (0.102)
• Off scoring DD [104-130, -2.89] (-0.012)
• Series Game 1 [559-723, 16.22] (0.013)
• Series Game 2 [544-726, -9.77] (-0.008)
• Series Game 3 [499-704, -41.04] (-0.034)
• Series Game 4 [88-131, -12.92] (-0.059)
• At Home [949-1038, 58.04] (0.029)
• On the Road [743-1248, -105.10] (-0.053)
• In the Playoffs [0-0, 0.00] (0.000)
• Off LL [675-984, -74.18] (-0.045)
• Off WW [231-287, -2.76] (-0.005)
• 5+ WL10 [436-602, -37.80] (-0.036)
• 7+ WL10 [30-52, -11.47] (-0.140)
• <=3 WL10 [843-1124, 20.96] (0.011)
• <=5 WL10 [1530-2069, -34.03] (-0.009)
• Against team off SO [58-90, -17.61] (-0.119)
• Vs. team off DD runs [156-252, -46.82] (-0.115)
• Vs. team off W (G1) [257-353, 5.06] (0.008)
• Vs. team off L (G1) [302-370, 11.16] (0.017)
• Off W (G1) [188-244, -1.66] (-0.004)
• Off L (G1) [371-479, 17.88] (0.021) 

This is how teams below a 45% record play under the following situations.

• 1st Half of Season [1964-2410, -133.02] (-0.030)
• 2nd half of season [2279-3004, -108.57] (-0.021)
• National League [2167-2706, -165.86] (-0.034)
• American League [2076-2708, -75.73] (-0.016)
• Divsional Rival [1657-2098, -30.77] (-0.008)
• Non-Divsional Rival [2083-2680, -158.77] (-0.033)
• Interleague Game [503-636, -52.05] (-0.046)
• As a dog [2803-4219, -153.35] (-0.022)
• As a favorite [1439-1194, -89.24] (-0.034)
• Off a win [1735-2078, -30.23] (-0.008)
• Off a loss [2508-3336, -211.36] (-0.036)
• Off being shut out [254-316, 12.22] (0.021)
• Off scoring DD [314-348, 11.52] (0.017)
• Series Game 1 [1384-1683, -4.03] (-0.001)
• Series Game 2 [1337-1776, -167.11] (-0.054)
• Series Game 3 [1267-1637, -69.10] (-0.024)
• Series Game 4 [249-312, -3.25] (-0.006)
• At Home [2341-2491, -7.74] (-0.002)
• On the Road [1902-2923, -233.85] (-0.048)
• In the Playoffs [0-0, 0.00] (0.000)
• Off LL [1503-2076, -177.56] (-0.050)
• Off WW [693-847, -53.45] (-0.035)
• 5+ WL10 [1536-1892, -98.43] (-0.029)
• 7+ WL10 [210-248, -10.92] (-0.024)
• <=3 WL10 [1646-2143, -27.99] (-0.007)
• <=5 WL10 [3548-4632, -259.58] (-0.032)
• Against team off SO [165-248, -56.24] (-0.136)
• Vs. team off DD runs [404-597, -94.94] (-0.095)
• Vs. team off W (G1) [643-873, -58.41] (-0.039)
• Vs. team off L (G1) [741-810, 54.38] (0.035)
• Off W (G1) [562-625, 50.19] (0.042)
• Off L (G1) [822-1058, -54.22] (-0.029)

Need-to-Knows

• You want to fade bad teams early in the season but bet on them late in the season. This flow well with what we explain all the time. Teams with poor records will be avoided by the betting public. And will therefore be undervalued as the public bets. The public gets the most excited about baseball late in the season and therefore this "bad" teams do much better against the spread. There is a 10 point difference between bad teams in the end of the season versus the beginning.
• Three situations pop out at us indicating when these teams are the best to go against. 1) When they are playing against a team that has just been shut out. 2) If they have been winning a bit latest. 3) And when they are going up against a team that is hitting well.
• If these teams are playing the first game of a series, if they are coming into the series off of a win, they have a 7 point greater advantage than if they had a loss coming in.

Although you may think it is not a good idea to bet on bad teams, but sometimes it is. The thing about bad teams is that the odds on them are always the worst. In fact, when bad teams are favorites, they are generally really good to bet. This is because the public will view a bad team as a favorite and think that they are not worth betting on. Therefore, the odds get shifted.

(more will be written)

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