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Expected Value
I will often be talking about expected value when I speak of betting systems because it is a measure of how much better a team does versus the odds. For example, we expect home teams to win at a higher percentage than road teams but they will be at a higher chalk.
The expected value of a game is dependent on the odds and the percentage of winning. It tells us how much I expect to win per average bet. The equations for expected value are:
Favorites
E[x] = (100*Pw) - (1-Pw)(Odds)
Underdogs
E[x] = (Odds*Pw) - (1-Pw)(100)
Pw = Probability of Winning
Setting E[x] = 0 and solving for Pw yields the break even percentage.
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