Our Free Picks - 4/27/2007

• Milwaukee Brewers +151 over Houston Astros (3.0 Units) - Early Season Game of the Year selection. We like the Brewers today big time for several reasons. First off, they have Capuano on the mound, a lefty that could easily stifle these Astros who are only 1-5, -3.95 units against lefties. The Astros are also not very good as a favorite [4-5, -3.49 units] or at home [3-5, -4.33 units]. On the other hand, the Brewers are pretty good moneyline as they are #3 in baseball. Then you have got these Brewers coming off a rare loss. We like to bet on streaking teams. But we also like to bet against reeling teams. There is no better definition for reeling than these Astros who dropped each of their last 6 games. They are not even averaging 3 runs per game in those games. So if you consider that these Astros are struggling offensively and they have to face a lefty, something they struggle against, what makes you think they should be -160 for the game? That is absurd because it is rested solely on the back of Oswalt. He might pitch a great game but the true odds for this game is Brewers +110.
• Blue Jays -129 over Rangers (2.0 Units) - We like these Blue Jays. I mean they have a lot of momentum coming into this game. 3 straight wins against the likes of the Red Sox and the Yankees. And that was all done on the road. So now they are coming home against a non-divisional rival in the Rangers. And the Rangers have lost three straight games. Two of which were on the road. Offensively, these Rangers have been somewhat solid and that is one reason we are reluctant to bet more on the Blue Jays, but we feel that according to the circumstances of this game, the home field advantage for the Blue Jays is much stronger than it normally is.
• NFLSystems.com has a GOM for the NBA Playoffs today in the Bulls-Heat game.
  

Daily Notes - 4/27/2007

• The Yankees are on an incredible run if playing off a shutout loss. They are 30-10 over the past 7 seasons. 20-3 if at home. 18-2 if at home and a favorite more than -130. The Yankees fall into that situation comfortably today. But how many times do they have to go against the hated Red Sox in this spot? (By the way they are 2-0 in this spot against the Red Sox) The Red Sox won't let up in the game like every other minnow they would face in this position. The Red Sox are not really in that good of a spot anyways. They had to travel from Boston to Baltimore on the 24th and then from Baltimore to New York on the 26th. That is a lot of travelling. We do not credit it so much because it is in the same timezone and the Yankees have also travelled a lot. If the Yankees are going to have success today, they will need to take advantage of the possible rustiness of these Red Sox in front of their raucuous home crowd.
• The New York Mets are the only team to have never lost against a lefty this season. They are a perfect 5-0 and will be facing one today.
• With their win yesterday (as we predicted thank you very much), the Giants have moved into the #1 position in the Moneyline standings.
• The Braves are a perfect 6-0 this season if facing a righty after having faced a lefty. They hit against a lefty yesterday and will do so also again today. So this bodes well for them tomorrow. But it might bode well for them today against a possibly weak Rockies bullpen.
• The Cubs are an amazing 5-11 this season as a favorite. If you would check out the message board for yesterday, you would see that we define a favorite to be any team that has a negative spread. So in a game where both teams are -105 or something, they are both considered "favorites". Basically, it is loosely defined as any team that requires a better than 50% strike rate to make you profit and in order to beat 50%, they must be favored. It's a loose definition that we have stuck with for years. The definition most commonly used is the team that is predicted to have a higher probability of winning which intuitively makes more sense.
• This "Daily Notes" does not reference actual picks but just talks about some key angles to help you when you consider betting on the games. If you like it, please let us know in the forums below to put pressure on us to do it on a daily basis. Look at the "What's Coming Up" section below and you will see what is on our slate to work on and add more suggestions to us, your suggestions thus far have been incredible.

Daily Stat Sheets - 4/27/2007 Games

• New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
• Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians
• Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
• San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
• Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
• Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
• Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
• Tampa Bay Devil Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
• Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
• Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
• Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners

Other Free Pick Sites - 4/27/2007

• NFL Systems - ranked #2 at NSM
• NBA Playoffs Betting Guide by NFLSystems
• If you are an owner of a freebie site or know of any other freebie baseball sites, please tell us about it. We want to promote them. (ebaytix@gmail.com)

What's Coming Up?

Thanks to your feedback over the past couple of days, we have work to do. We really appreciate all of your opinions and do our very best to implement whatever we can so please keep the suggestions coming.

• We are going to put a standings table for the American League Baseball team, National League Baseball teams focusing on references to moneyline performances under certain situations.
• A page with the past results of each of the teams will be created.
• We will start to show udpated performances of each of the systems on our systems page.
• Those that purchase our 20 premium systems will be emailed the systems picks on a daily basis.
• On the Handicapping pages (EXAMPLE), we will put the angles/situations the team falls into for the particular day in bold. So you can easily identify which angles and trends are in effect for that team.
• We are getting a lot of emails asking the same questions, so we are going to put up a constant running FAQ page log. So whenever we answer your questions, we will post the responses on the FAQ page.

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