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I was recently speaking with a professional gambler who, despite having a good basketball and football record, has had troubles when betting on baseball. He has claimed to be quite successful in the beginning of seasons but not so much at the end. For those of you who are premium subscribers to our picks, you'd know that we analyze games slightly differently depending on the period of time. In the beginning of the season, for example, we look at betting home teams more because that is when the home field advantage is strongest. Dating back to the beginning of 10 seasons ago, home teams have a 54.3% winning record in the first half of a season. It drops to 53.7% in the second half of a season. LOL. I know what you're thinking. That is barely noticeable!! Well yeah but that is why it is such an important and effective handicapping tool. If the win percentage was greater in the first half of a season, then the gamblers would be tapping home teams like crazy. Nevertheless, we are not so foolish as to use home field advantage as our ONLY reason for betting on a team. We would not blindly bet such a team. But we have, based on past statistics, realized and found out that home teams deserve 2 more points in the first half of a season than in the second half. So if a team is -130 in the first half, they would have to be -128 in the second half to be equal. And if we combine this with other situations and angles, we can find teams undervalued by about 20 points. When a team is undervalued by about 20 points, they are 1 unit plays. If they are undervalued about 30 points, they are 1.5 unit plays and labeled as Game of the Week. 40 point range teams would be 2.0 unit and 3.0 unit plays; GOM and GOY respectively. Back to the first half and second half of the series. Home dogs dating back to the beginning of 2000, are +97 units in the first half of the season! And undervalued by about 3 points. But in the second half of the season, they are worse. So you may be doing your best to find a good home dog but it gets harder in the second half of the season as many of the novice gamblers (that generally bet favorites) are pushed out of the sportsbooks. | 
