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Home Field Advantage (Cont'd)
Win Percentages within a Series
Analyzing the home field advantage further, I noticed interesting correlations between a home team's winning percentage and the game number in a series.
Game 1: 54.2%
Game 2: 53.8%
Game 3: 53.5%
Game 4: 50.2%
The home field advantage decreases as the series progresses to the point that by Game 4 of the series, the home field advantage is nullified. Our records indicate that the oddsmakers have not appropriately adjusted for this Game 4 phenomenon and as a result, very successful systems exist for this.
Explanation: It is important to be able to explain phenomenon and systems that are uncovered to keep from utilizing systems that are statistical aberrations. The fact of the matter is, this phenomenon makes perfect sense. Baseball teams generally play everyday and Game 1's are tough for the road team generally having to travel into a new city. By game 4, the effects of travelling subside and nullify the home field advantage.
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