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Home Field Advantage (Cont'd)
Making sense of the phenomenon of the home field advantage in Game 1's in the previous page actually brings to light some interesting points that we ought to consider.
How do Home teams do in Games 1, when the opponent is coming off a win, loss, off a home game, road game.
Home Teams in Game 1 of a series versus a Team...
Off a Win: 50.8%
Off a Loss: 57.5%
Off a Road: 54.5%
Off a Home: 53.8%
There is a strong correlation between a team losing and a team being a bad team. That is why going against teams off a loss would win at a higher percentage than going against teams off a win. Up to this point, we did not concern ourselves with Expected Value because of the large sample sizes we were dealing with. Click here to read our article on Expected Value. Measuring systems and angles based on expected value helps us understand how much better than the money line odds does a team do.
In fact, the expected value of going against a team coming off a loss is positive. This means that blindly betting that angle is a winning system but before betting the farm on this, keep in mind that this is averaged over several seasons and one can lose plenty in a given season. Nevertheless, the reason for this is psychological to the entire team. Travelling to a new city to play a game is tough but to be compounded into a situation where spirits on the team is low due to a loss can be quite profitable to go against.
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