NEW:
Follow
us on Twitter!
Due
to expected business travels across the next month, we may miss some days of updating our website but all of our clients and newsletter
subscribers
will be getting their emails.
Moneyline Breakeven Percentages
The probability necessary to win at a given spread is not always something the novice gambler is aware of. This is important because novice gamblers get tempted to bet on the -200 favorite because he/she knows it will likely win the game. What they don't know is that if the given -200 favorite does not have a 66.6% or better chance of winning, it is a losing proposition over the long haul.
How To Calculate For Favorites
I define a favorite as a team with a negative spread like -105, -150, etc. Take the absolute value of the spread and divide by itself plus 100. For example, for an -150 team, take 150/250 = 60%. To pull even, our -150 favorite must win 60% of the time.
How To Calculate For Underdogs
Take 100 and divide by 100 plus the spread. For example, a +150 team, take 100/250 = 40%. To pull even, our +150 dog must win 40% of the time.
List of Break Even Percentages
-200: 66.7%
-180: 64.3%
-160: 61.5%
-140: 58.3%
-120: 54.5%
+100: 50.0%
+120: 45.4%
+140: 41.7%
+160: 38.5%
+180: 35.7%
+200: 33.3%
If you find yourself betting on a favorite, check the break even percentage to ensure that the bet is a profitable one. If you are looking to bet on baseball over the long haul, keeping an eye on the break even percentage is important. Being able to predict a team's probability of winning is equally as important.
