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Moneyline Breakeven Percentages
The probability necessary to win at a given spread is not always something the novice gambler is aware of. This is important because novice gamblers get tempted to bet on the -200 favorite because he/she knows it will likely win the game. What they don't know is that if the given -200 favorite does not have a 66.6% or better chance of winning, it is a losing proposition over the long haul.
How To Calculate For Favorites
I define a favorite as a team with a negative spread like -105, -150, etc. Take the absolute value of the spread and divide by itself plus 100. For example, for an -150 team, take 150/250 = 60%. To pull even, our -150 favorite must win 60% of the time.
How To Calculate For Underdogs
Take 100 and divide by 100 plus the spread. For example, a +150 team, take 100/250 = 40%. To pull even, our +150 dog must win 40% of the time.
List of Break Even Percentages
If you find yourself betting on a favorite, check the break even percentage to ensure that the bet is a profitable one. If you are looking to bet on baseball over the long haul, keeping an eye on the break even percentage is important. Being able to predict a team's probability of winning is equally as important.