April 3, 2008 Baseball Picks

Despite only playing 2-3 games, there remains only four undefeated teams in major league baseball at the moment. This suggests, at baseball's infancy that maybe there is parity in baseball. And if this is the case, we ought to be sure to avoid betting on favorites immediately or at least be cautious in doing so. We got hammered on our two favorites yesterday and we are just going to have to take it as part of a whole season of ups and downs. Now, one measly series does not prove anything but it is certainly something that we ought to track, for example, the Nationals who we took in Game 1 is 3-0 at the moment despite being underdogs in all 3 games.

We are a handicapping service that is willing to learn from our mistakes.

Baltimore Orioles +115 over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.0 Units) - The Baltimore Orioles stand out for a couple of reasons. First, they are a home underdog going against a divisional rival. And second, when two teams are facing off in game 3 and tied 1-1 in a series, the advantage lies with the team that had won game 2 due to momentum. Now let's look at the numbers and see how teams in those situations do: +9 units last season and mixed results over the previous 8 seasons. But again, despite the fact that there are mixed results, we are liking this pick because of our contention that going for underdogs should be profitable.

Atlanta Braves -147 over Pittsburgh Pirates (1.0 Units) - We are taking these Braves today on the backs of their mighty fine offensive output over the past 2 games. They have been something special this season. Blindly betting on teams coming off a game in which they put up double digit runs is money but these Braves have done that twice in a row. More impressive is that they were able to accomplish this beginning in the season when most batters still have yet to get into a groove. We worry about Zach Duke and the fact that he's a lefty as per our yesterday picks stating how well lefties due early in the season but the Braves' 7 run 8th inning started against Damaso Marte, a lefty. In fact, the Braves (just as the Athletics have been) are traditionally strong against lefties, going +40 units over the past 9 seasons. In fact, they are 1-0, +1 unit this season.