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April 7, 2008 Baseball Picks

Please Note: For those of you who have purchased our systems document, the Marlins fall into System DI today.

Arizona Diamondbacks -146 over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) - The interesting thing to note here regarding the Diamondbacks is that although they are the home favorite, equal money is pouring into the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks are actually in a bad spot that they have to travel from the thin air of Coors field to play at home on consecutive days. But what sets this apart is the fact that they are playing in their first home series. They are also coming into this series after sweep their opponent on the road while the Dodgers have been anemic on offense this season with few exceptions so it should bode well for Danny Haren, a pitcher from the AL used to much steeper competition.

Florida Marlins +119 over Washington Nationals (1.0 Units) - The Marlins are playing in their first road game of the season but they do it against a Nationals team that has lost four straight games despite winning their first 3 games. We love looking to bet against teams in a downward spiral such as this. Looking at the numbers, we see that favorites on a 4+ game losing streak are -37 units over the past 4 seasons. If we narrow it down to National League teams, we see that these teams are overvalued by an average of 11 points over the past 9 seasons. This is the case because NL games tend to be closer than are AL games because they lack a DH. And when teams are in slumps, it does not help having your pitcher roll out there and hit every nine spots.

Chicago White Sox -148 over Minnesota Twins (1.0 Units) - The White Sox offense is on a roll and we are picking them in their homecoming game in much the same way we decided on taking the Diamondbacks. The White Sox took the roar out of the Tigers this weekend in a series they won a total 26-10. This should help them as they come back home with Vazquez on the mound. Vazquez did not have that great of a start in his first start of the season but as many pitcher do, they bounce back from a poor start. Besides, with the White Sox offenses rolling as they are, it may not matter.