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April 11, 2008 Baseball Picks
Picks that come from our systems document: Rockies fall into our CT system. Angels fall into our CT and DI systems.
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Los Angeles Angels +117 over Seattle Mariners (1.0 Units) - This is a game that features two young dueling pitchers in Weaver and Hernandez. If this game was being played in Anaheim, Weaver would surely be favorite but because it is in Seattle, Hernandez gets the edge. Our systems that we are using to take these Angels involve the fact that it is the first game of the series and the Mariners come into it having just been shut out. When an offense gets shut out, Jered Weaver would be the last pitcher that they would want to face. Felix is a tough one as well but with these Angels bats exploding yesterday, they are bound to carry momentum into today, at least enough to justify us taking them as underdogs.
Colorado Rockies +132 over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units) - The Rockies have won three straight games while the Diamondbacks have won 6 straight. Both teams are streaking and in such a case, we are tempted to take the Rockies on the road here for a contrarion reason. It is not that the Rockies have the best chance of winning but rather the Diamondback's six-game winning streak is inflating their odds, specifically at home. We also understand that home teams are at their best at the start of a series but we throw that concept out of the window when we dissect the fact that we are getting the Rockies at this spread. I would expect them to become heavier of favorites. Our data has shown that the biggest impediment for streaking teams is day's off. The Diamondbacks had a day off yesterday and represents the main reason we'd consider these Rockies today. Look at the numbers, home teams against a divisional rival with a 5+ game winning streak are 7 points more overvalued if they are playing with 1 day off as opposed to two. Nothing cools down a hot team than not playing.
Washington Nationals +152 over Atlanta Braves (1.0 Units) - I am sure to be blasted for this pick if it loses and praised if it wins considering we are putting our money on a team that has lost 7 straight games. But we think the Braves are a bit overvalued here at -160. We also think that the traveling from mile high Colorado to Washington D.C. will have a toll on them, not only because of the air but because of the timezones. Travel has more of an impact on teams early in the season when players have yet to get into a comfortable groove than it does at the end of the season. Tim Hudson likely stands to have a good game but we do not expect much offense from either team, thus shifting the value to our better prepared home dog that does not have to travel.
