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April 15, 2008 Baseball Picks

Baltimore Orioles (126) over Toronto Blue Jays (1.5 Units) - This is just a 2-game home series for the Orioles and as a result, it will be much too easy for the Blue Jays to overlook them ... as they have a home series against the Rangers coming up. The Blue Jays had a very successful 3-game road sweep against the Rangers so they will surely be looking forward to a 2-game home series with them. So with respect to how concentrated these teams will be for the game, we've got to give the edge to the Orioles. Don't forget that these Orioles have a 6-1 home record.

As far as hitting goes, it is tough to really say that one team has more of an advantage over the other. They are each playing mediocre in that regard.

As for pitching, the Blue Jays have Marcum on the mound, who has pitched pretty well thus far in the season and had a decent year last year. Then you have Trachsel who is wholly unreliable of a pitcher. But we factor that into the odds, meaning that because of the pitching advantage these Blue Jays have, the odds have swung wildly on the Blue Jays side.

Chicago Cubs (-105) over Cincinnati Reds (1.0 Units) - The Reds are in a downward spiral, scoring just 4 runs in their recent series against the Pirates. The fact that they are struggling to score runs and have to travel to Chicago will not help them either. Our statistics show that teams in their third consecutive road series do a horrible job because of all the traveling, living out of a suitcase, and eating of hotel food. It takes the largest toll on these players in the beginning of the season because they are just getting used to getting into the groove of playing baseball, traveling, etc.. These Cubs are going to feel great today in that they are coming back home from a road trip, with rest, and off a win.

Statistics show that betting against a team in the first game of their third consecutive road series is +34 units in the first half of the season if our team is coming off a win and the opponent is coming off a loss. Pretty simple system but works so perfectly just was described in this pick..

Los Angeles Angels (105) over Texas Rangers (1.0 Units) - We haven't had such a hot couple of days but the Angels saved us yesterday from being completely swept for the day. And we are going to ride them high today because it is an early morning game and that tends to benefit an offense that may not need batting practice as opposed to one that does need it, etc... Also, it is interesting to note that the Angels go will be playing a 2-game home series against the Royals on deck. The looking ahead factor will definitely not count for the Angels in this case because they are not a divisional rival and because the stigma associated with how bad the Royals are (prior years). So these Angels will be thinking how much more important it is to finish off this road trip strong. So with that concentration, the early morning game, as well as the statistical advantages teams up 1-0 in a 2-game series have. They are +14 units over the past 6 full seasons. And if they scored more than 5 runs in that first game... they are +29 units over the past 9 full seasons, with only 2 losing years. So just as we described in our description the analysis of past results of teams in the Angels situation seem to coincide pretty strongly with the theory.

The writeups for our other 3 picks will be posted online on our website shortly....

Milwaukee Brewers (116) over St. Louis Cardinals (1.0 Units) -
Washington Nationals (153) over New York Mets (1.0 Units) -
Florida Marlins (100) over Atlanta Braves (1.0 Units) -

Have a great tax day....