April 19, 2008 Baseball Picks

Only went 1-1 yesterday but made a profit on the day because both picks were dogs.. hardly makes up for losses earlier in the week so we'll see how today's 3 picks go...

Baltimore Orioles (137) over New York Yankees (1.5 Units) - We are going to roll with these Orioles again on the basis of value. Yesterday, we took them knowing there were angles going against the Yankees when they come off of playing against the Red Sox. But today, we've got to understand that there's a lot of pressure on these Yankees today to avoid a 3-game sweep and Ian Kennedy is the wrong pitcher to go out there.

This was taken from Yahoo Sports... "The New York Yankees came into the 2008 season knowing they'd have to rely on two young starting pitchers to get wins. Nearly three weeks into the season, they're still waiting for the first one. Ian Kennedy will try to change that on Saturday, when the visiting Yankees continue their series with the Baltimore Orioles, who handed Phil Hughes another loss Friday night."

What that quote shows is the pressure Kennedy and Hughes had coming into the season as well as the struggles that they are having. So given that knowledge, do the Yankees really deserve to be in the -150 range? Nope. These Orioles are again being undervalued. It was not until the 13th paragraph of the Yahoo Sports game preview before they even started talking about how well these Orioles are playing this season!! "The Orioles (10-7) have continued their surprising start despite struggles by their own rotation. "... ummmm sounds like the coverage is a bit one-sided folks especially since these Orioles are at home and have a young pitcher of their own on the mound in Burres. Burres has had two starts this season, his last being rather horrible and his career against the Yankees have been pretty bad as the past couple of seasons were when these Yankees loved hitting lefties. It could still be true today but with the Orioles offense proving they can put runs on the board, and their home field advantage, we've got to give them a bit of an advantage.

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Arizona Diamondbacks (-112) over San Diego Padres (1.0 Units) - After playing a 22-inning ball game on Thursday, these Padres looked rusty and tired on Friday. Well, their 3 hits didn't prove much in the way of wow! The good thing about Friday's game was the fact that Greg Maddux was able to eat up a lot of innings and give their bullpen a lot of rest, something that they desperately needed. But we love to go against teams that are tired from either playing a lot of innings, having a rusty bullpen, or traveling too much not necessarily in game 1 but in game 2. And the reasons are physiological. Because in game 1, a team can run on pure adrenaline but in game 2, it is when all the tiredness sets in. It is why the Rockies can score 11 runs yesterday all the while these Padres looked flat. So the fact that these Diamondbacks are 12-4 on the season, 6-1 at home, are 8-2 L10, and on a 3-game winning streak, it is a blessing that we are able to get them at such small odds of -122 today. Sure, Chris Young has a lot of promise and is looking to bounce back from a bad start on the 12th against the Dodgers but these Padres are just not scoring runs right now.

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Florida Marlins (-105) over Washington Nationals (1.0 Units) - There are quite a bit of strong angles on the side of the Marlins today. They are 6-4L10, 9-7 overall, had spurts in the season where they looked really good. The Nationals are a nothing team this season, they are 5-12, 2-8L10. All signs should point to the Marlins being heavily favored in today's game but it is not so. Why not?

First of all, the general public is putting too much of an emphasis on the Marlins' recent slide.. but the Nationals have not been good at all, all season long. Besides these Marlins got shutout on Thursday against John Smoltz, can you really blame them?

Well Yahoo Sports is, this is what they are saying.

"The Florida Marlins' offense has played a key role in their strong start to 2008. Unfortunately for Florida, its lack of production at the plate has also been a factor in defeat....The Marlins' offense is hitting only .184 with three homers and nine runs in seven losses, getting shut out three times."

Media sources have to report in a way that is sensationalistic such as the doom and gloom of a team just to make people want to read your article. Although the article was well written, no flaws, and reported facts, the way it is consumed by the public has a negative impact on folks wanting to bet them. If this was the Yankees or Red Sox, everybody would want to bet them thinking that they'd bounce back. Folks don't believe in the Marlins.. So yes, there's value in taking a home team in a bounce back position against a 5-12 team that is -105 on the moneyline. It is not like they have Smoltz on the mound, the Nationals are putting out Shawn Hill!