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April 20, 2008 Baseball Picks

It was a refreshing 3-0 day yesterday considering that we've started off the season so slowly... Does this mean we've righted the ship, not really... We have kind of altered one of the factors we use to make a pick.. and that is looking at media reports to see how we think a team might respond as a hedge against relying solely on past statistics.

We are going to finish off the weekend with just one pick today.

Chicago White Sox (116) over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.0 Units) - The White Sox are the 8th best team in the moneyline  category thus far in the season. At 10-7, they are +4.15 units which translates to them being undervalued by an average  of 24 points. At this early point in the season, such a statistic may or may not be relevant due to the small sample  size of games but here's why it matters. Using the same argument, you could say the Diamondbacks are undervalued by an  average of 53 points but at 13-4, it is more likely that they are overperforming than being undervalued! The White Sox,  however, are only 3 games above .500 and for them to have such large unit gains is telling.These White Sox are coming off a shut out loss as they finish out this road trip against the Devil Rays, we expect a strong performance from the White Sox as they are not scheduled to play on Monday. The Devil Rays, on the other hand, are going to have to face a lefty in Danks. The Devil Rays batted against Buehrle, a lefty, yesterday which actually helps them as they get into the groove of hitting against south paws but they are 2-5, -2.5 units off of a win and [3-4 -1.4 units] against a non-divisional rival... all the while the White Sox are [4-2, +2.7 units] off a loss, and [5-2, +5 units] as a dog. So basically we are going to ignore home field advantage and take the better undervalued team that is looking to bounce back from a shut out loss. Sometimes you wonder why a team is an underdog when you think they shouldn't be but then get discouraged because you think the sportsbooks know something that you don't know but when we've shown you the White Sox being undervalued an average of 24 points, that should give you some relief but winning today would make us happy :-)....