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April 21, 2008 Baseball Picks

Despite the fact that we are 5-1 over the past 3 days, we are still being a little bit cautious with our picks. We have to be over the course of the entire season... so for today, there's only one pick.

Florida Marlins -102 over Pittsburgh Pirates (1.0 Units) - Just as we noticed the White Sox were a team that was consistently being undervalued yesterday, these Marlins are too being undervalued. They are [11-7, +6.40 units] on the season and are ranked in third place in the overall moneyline standings. Part of it could be that they are overperforming but we expect them to do just that against the lowly Pirates. Those Bucs have lost 5 straight games and they are struggling offensively... Most of that woeful offensive was a result of being on the road but going up against a lefty in Hendrickson today is not going to help their cause.

Matt Morris for the Pirates, has pitched in three starts for an ERA of over 7. So no matter how you slice their offense/pitching, these Bucs are overvalued today because they are at home. But don't think that a team can reverse their fortunes that fast.