April 22, 2008 Baseball Picks

Toronto Blue Jays (134) over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.5 Units) - Now that the Frank Thomas debacle is out of their system, it is time for some serious baseball from these Blue Jays. They travel to Florida to play today all the while the Rays are at home resting. But it is tough to say the Devil Rays should be favored today as much as they because of that. They are not significantly a better team in hitting or pitching today (Shields vs. Litsch). Home field advantage as well as the Rays' rest are factoring into this odds but a bit too much. When a team is shut out and plays on no rest, they come back to be +50 units but if they have some rest, they are -10 units over the past 8 seasons. So rest does not bode well for teams off shutout losses as the Devil Rays are in... You can come to your own conclusions as to why that is.


San Diego Padres (-148) over Houston Astros (1.0 Units) - The winners of game 1 of a 2 game series have a benefit in the second game but not when they have to face Jake Peavy and his [3-0, 1.20 ERA] record. The Astros are 2-2 thus far in their mini-home swing and we are certain that they will want to make it 3-2 but think about it this way... if the Padres were really the Yankees (or Red Sox) and they had a Peavy type on the mound, would they not be -170? Offensively, these Padres are very unpredictable but we just have to take the value inherent in taking Peavy.


Detroit Tigers (-158) over Texas Rangers (1.0 Units) - This is the first game of this series and the Tigers have a win coming into today's game. Playing at home against a non-divisional rival should do wonders for them as they try to right the ship and start winning games. They will play with a lot more intensity as evidenced by this quote taken from Yahoo Sports...

"Leyland said before Monday's 5-1 victory at Toronto that his "big boys have to start stepping up. There are no secrets here. I have to do better. The coaches have to do better. The players have to do better and the big boys have to step it up. It's that simple."

The scary part of the bet is the fact that Verlander has been so horrible this season. But pitchers can tend to bounce back from bad games when they are motivated. And the Tigers bats will step up today knowing that they're averaging only 1 run in Verlander's last three starts.



Atlanta Braves (-203) over Washington Nationals (1.0 Units) - We try to avoid heavy favorites because they tend to carry little value in them because by virtue of being favorite, they are bet on heavily by the public -- and the sportsbooks will devalue anything bet on by the public. But this game is slightly different. You've got a Nationals team that is struggling to find offense and pitching... and do you really believe they will find it today in their last game of such a long road trip? Nope. The odds are against them in that respect. They've got to be thinking, "can't wait to get home" as if playing at home will cure their woes. This is also a 2-game series and the winners of game 1 benefit in such a series.