April 23, 2008 Baseball Picks

Houston Astros (133) over Cincinnati Reds (1.0 Units) - This is an undervalued underdog. The Astros may not be much to brag about with their 9-12 record but they sure are playing well right now. They are 6-4L10 with a 3 game winning streak. They've scored double digit runs in each of the past 2 games. They will bring that momentum to the road to face the Cincinnati Reds, who themselves have not been pitching well. Arroyo may be getting too much credit for his season in 2006 but since then, he's been perfect to fade. He was 9-15 last year and has started off this season at 0-2. Bettors may forget about the Reds' woes because of their 8-1 win last night but we won't. We will be weary of taking this team that is 3-7L10 and going up against a divisional road dog.
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San Francisco Giants (131) over San Diego Padres (1.0 Units) - The Giants fall into the same category as the Astros today... they are undervalued road dogs. But just exactly how they fall into that category is a bit more ambiguous. We do not like betting teams starting off a series with a loss, let alone having been swept like these Giants. We also hate to play on teams in their third consecutive road series but we would if we take these Giants. So the value actually lies in going AGAINST the Padres. They themselves have been swept by a non-divisional team on the road and had to travel home last night. Does not bode well for them as their pitching has been getting bruised like crazy on the road. They've given up double digit runs in each of the past 2 games. Here's what Yahoo Sports has to say:

"The Padres' bullpen is on the ropes. After 21 games this season, Padres relievers are 1-8 with a 5.53 ERA. "We're not consistently making pitches. That's the bottom line," said Padres manager Bud Black. "A good bullpen works together, where each guy shoulders his responsibility."

Not exactly the type of thing you want your team talking about as you go home is it?

Divisional home favorites of less than -120 coming off of being swept is [68-60, -23 units] dating back 10 years... meaning they've been overvalued by an average of 18 points. Could it be that these Padres are significantly being overvalued at -145 with all these bullpen problems? Yep, I think Maddux is getting too much respect here.

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Seattle Mariners (-124) over Baltimore Orioles (1.0 Units) - The Mariners began their home swing yesterday with a squeaker win in which they had a tie going into the 8th inning but get 2 runs to pull out the victory. Now that becomes crucial in guessing that the Orioles will struggle today. Carlos Silva has been having a great season thus far and his worst pitching performance of the year actually came against these Orioles. That may be advantageous to the Orioles if we believe they have some inherent ability to beat up on Silva but we feel that it is more likely that Silva will be prepared for today's game going against an Orioles team that has been having trouble scoring runs the past couple of games. The Orioles are 4-0 in games that Cabrera has started and we are obviously not big fans having bet against him this season so we shall see how he stacks up against the Mariners for the second time this season. The issue that gives the Mariners that extra boost worthy of a play is the return of JJ Putz. Although it may not be the biggest of deals for the team, they sure think it is.

Here's what Yahoo Sports has to say: "Mariners closer J.J. Putz has done it so many times to so many others, it seemed only appropriate that his return from a stint on the disabled list was capped by a shaving cream pie to the face."

The Mariners should be able to continue this momentum at home.