April 29, 2008 Baseball Picks

We almost entirely hone in on betting baseball... While all the other handicappers are spewing out picks for the NBA playoffs, we are licking our chops by analyzing each and every baseball game and pouncing on weak lines. And while we are in the offseason, instead of spewing out NFL picks, we study mounds of MLB data in preparation for the next season. And one thing we've noticed for baseball is that the more complex of a system you use to make betting picks, the better you will do in the long run. Because sportsbooks only really have time to stop the obvious betting systems. So we bet on baseball understanding that all good things come to an end...

Never more clear than looking at the betting lines for the Diamondbacks today. Just a few days ago, we posted a Yahoo Sports blurb and commented that the Diamondbacks would probably cease to be a value pick soon. We took them against Jake Peavy and won but they've been huge home favorites after that point in time against the Astros and we will be very hesitant to take them at the price they are being given... assuming that trend keeps up. Then look at the Reds. We took them yesterday as +135 dogs but today they are -113 despite the fact that they probably had a better chance of winning yesterday than they do today based on pitching-hitting and travel dynamics... The oddsmakers do not really have a firm grasp on baseball right now and are basically just adjusting to public perception -- nothing else.

Washington Nationals (100) over Atlanta Braves (1.5 Units) - These Braves just lost a three-game series against the Mets and had to live out of their suitcase for one day off before getting to play Washington. All that while, the Nationals get to stay home, get home cooking and relax knowing that they have won 3 of 4 games. Tom Glavine is off of the DL and is scheduled to pitch today. His last outing was against these very same Nationals who jumped him for two runs before Glavine strained his right hamstring without even registering one out! So here's why we are betting on the Nationals believing that they have value.

Home dog in division rivalry game.

Uncertainty as to whether Glavine is 100%.

Nationals are rested while the Braves had to travel.

Nationals have been home for a long while, while the Braves living out of their suitcases.

Psychological advantage Nationals have with respect to their last outing on April 13 when Glavine was injured.



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New York Yankees (-130) over Detroit Tigers (1.0 Units) - We were very close to going against the Yankees yesterday based on some trends and angles going for the Indians but we didn't feel comfortable pulling the trigger because the fact that yesterday represented the second game in a row that the Yankees went up against a lefty and the small 1% improvement that has on a team put the game in a slim go-against to a no bet... Well now the Yankees get to face Kenny Rogers, ANOTHER lefty.

Teams facing a lefty after having faced a righty are only 48.6%, whereas if a team has faced a lefty three times in a row, they improve to 50.2%. American League teams in this spot are on a 27-15 roll. Although the Yankees tend to be a bit overvalued in general, they are going to have a renewed sense of confidence against Kenny Rogers as they begin this home swing. This game is action on Kenny Rogers pitching for the Tigers.

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Chicago White Sox (105) over Minnesota Twins (1.0 Units) -

There's too much uncertainty with these Twins right now. The Yahoo Sports "Twins Team Report" for April 29 says this:

"The Twins got a glimpse of what their revamped lineup might be capable of on Saturday, when they exploded for 12 runs against Texas, their largest output of the season."

Well ummm, did they not realize that they only scored 0 runs on Sunday? The White Sox played yesterday in what ended as a 3-3 tie. How crappy is that? We do not have enough data to really know how a team comes back after such a game.... so we are going to watch how the White Sox perform very closely. But because the Orioles scored a run in the top of the 11th, the White Sox have got to be more relieved than anything else for scoring in the bottom half of that inning. They should be coming into this game with the mentality that they are winners in a very obscure way. But without the data to back myself up, that's just speculation on my part.

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Oakland Athletics (129) over Los Angeles Angels (1.0 Units) -

We stated above how the Diamondbacks have ceased to be a guaranteed value bet... well these Athletics still seem to be offering up value. Joe Saunders may be 4-0 but there's no reason for the Athletics to be +129 when they have the best record in the American League and are coming off a 14 run game. Just as in the Dodgers-Padres... and... RedSox-Yankees rivalries... blindly betting on the underdog of those games have been money. The underdog over the last 5 seasons in an Angels and Athletics game has been +8.4 units.