EasyBaseballBetting.com - June 3, 2008
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We did not provide the most thorough of writeups yesterday in our two picks because they were such heavy favorites that the reasons for taking them were obvious. But we went 2-0, that's all that matters, and hit our very strong 2 unit play..
And now today, we've got 4 picks on tap... two of which are 1.5 unit plays (game of the week caliber).
Toronto Blue Jays (115) over New York Yankees (1.5 Units) -
The Blue Jays are coming into this game losers of two straight and that, generall does not bode well for a team to start off a new series. They are also playing in their third plus consecutive road series but the Yankees themselves are not having such a good time. The other issue here is that the Blue Jays had a day off while the Yankees did not. The best thing for a team that is losing is a day off because it allows them to prepare for their next opponent to get back on the right track. So with these Blue Jays getting the extra day off... who does that benefit?
It benefits Halladay against the Yankees! And then it benefits the Blue Jays hitters against youngster Chamberlain in his first ever start. Ummm... Chamberlain will be too much under pressure to really save them. These odds are out of whack here... Blue Jays are the strong pick.
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Tampa Bay Devil Rays (114) over Boston Red Sox (1.5 Units) -
The Devil Rays are first place in the AL... and have the second best record in the Major Leagues... They are also coming into this series against the Red Sox having won 3 consecutive games against the White Sox. The odds here suggest the fact that the Devil Rays are going to travel on the road is enough to stop their momentum and when considering how strong home teams have been this season, that is entirely possible but we won't buy that argument today.
First, the Devil Rays are the best team in moneyline standings this season (+13 units) and although they have one of the best records in baseball, they are impressive in many of the major categories that are going on today. They are +4 units in the first game of a series. They are +11 units against divisional rivals. They are +6 units off a win. The only questionable cause for concern is the fact that they are not so impressive moneyline on the road (just +0.5 units) meaning that it is at home that they've ran up the moneyline statistics.
On the contrary, these Red Sox have really ran up the moneyline statistics at home, where they are 21-5.
Dvisional rivalry underdogs with a worse than 500 road record against a team with a better than 600 home record are +43 units dating back to the start of the 2005 season -- including +8 units this season a year in which home teams have dominated. This is because they are extremely undervalued due to public perception of the game.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-103) over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units) -
The Brewers are playing in their third straight home series and teams in that spot tend to do better than the average home team because the affects of travel are nonexistent and dont bug them.
And although these Diamondbacks are leading the West and have a strong record, they are under 500 on the road and only 3-7L10. The Brewers are going to take advantage of their home field advantage today as we find them in a couple of very strong betting systems that tell us to go for small home favorites against non-divisional rivals.
We also understand that these Brewers are running up the moneyline statistics against left handed pitchers like Randy Johnson! They are 11-6 this season against southpaws. Randy Johnson is untested on the road this season, only have three road starts and against some rather poor teams. So this gives the Brewers a perfect chance to beat up him.
We would theoretically make this game action on Johnson pitching but if it were some generic right hander, we'd never get the Brewers at such nice odds so we will take the game action regardless of pitcher.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (-104) over Houston Astros (1.0 Units) -
The Pirates are pretty good for a last place team... but it is these Astros that are playing like a last place team. They've been on the road too long and are finding it incredibly difficult to score runs.... They've only scored 6 runs in their prior 5 games! And today they're going to have to figure out something to get back on their feet.
Their day off yesterday generally helps but because they've been on the road so long, it likely will not... at least not against a left handed pitcher.
