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EasyBaseballBetting.com - June 4, 2008
If you purchase our monthly subscription $100/month, we will refund the price of these picks...
Oakland Athletics (-125) over Detroit Tigers (2.0 Units) -
We like the Athletics today at home against the Tigers as a 2 unit game of the month caliber pick.
First of all, these Athletics have been taking advantage of non-divisional rivals... they are +12 units against them while only -5 units against divisional rivals. This suggests that they take advantage of teams who are not necessarily playing with the intensity a divisional rival would.
We also know that these A's are +9 off a win and they beat the Tigers 5-4 yesterday.
There's also the looking ahead factor these A's fall under. They take on the Angels on Friday and although looking ahead is generally bad for other sports like basketball and football, it is not the case for baseball... That is because teams want to go into a game against a rival as these A's will with a win...
Then there's the walk off single by Cust to end the game yesterday... This suggests that the A's have an added momentum boost.
The Athletics are facing a lefty today but they faced Willis yesterday anyways (a lefty)... Teams win at a higher rate against lefties if they faced a left handed pitcher their prior game as opposed to a righty.. The A's were a bit off their game against Willis but should be just fine today. The Tigers, on the other hand, are facing a righty after having faced a lefty yesterday, something that tends to dock a couple of percentage points off your ability to win.
With all these factors pointing towards taking the A's, we cannot give it up and are taking it action regardless of pitcher.
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Minnesota Twins (-104) over Baltimore Orioles (1.0 Units) -
For those of you following our picks very closely, we like to take teams one game under a 500 record... something that tends to really get a team motivated but we are not convinced of them today... because it was their four consecutive losses from May 28 to June 1 that caused them to be under 500 in the first place... Our angle only really works if a team had been under 500 for a long while and are desperate to get back on track.
The Twins have a lefty at the helm today - these Orioles are [5-8, -3 units] against lefties this season.
The Twins find themselves in a system that involves betting on home teams after losing the first game of a series so long as they have an above 500 home record (18-15) while their opponent has a worse than 500 road record (11-18).
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Colorado Rockies (124) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) -
These Dodgers are coming off being shut out yesterday... and they are really struggling to score. They are averaging less than 4 runs per game over their past 20 games (3.75). So to expect the Dodgers to be as heavy favorites as they are is really stretching it.. Here's the deal about what we do.. We convert the spread into an expected margin of victory. The larger the favorite, the greater their "expected" average margin of victory. So when a team struggles to score, we dock them some points here and there for that and it causes their true value to be less.
And we've also got a decent betting system that involves taking divisional rivalry dogs. This game is action regardless of pitchers.
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Toronto Blue Jays (122) over New York Yankees (1.0 Units) -
We hit our 1.5 unit play on the Blue Jays yesterday and now got them again today because we see their offense is back on track to where it was earlier in their road trip. A lot of that had to do with facing Chamberlain just as we expected.
Mike Mussina has a horrible home ERA this season in 7 starts (5.17)... and included in that is a game against the Orioles on May 20 in which he gave up 7 runs but only 1 was earned. We expect the Blue Jays to take advantage of Mussina today. Meanwhile, Litsch is have a strong season this year. He's had two consecutive shutout games since making a relief appearance on May 16 on the road against the Phillies. Since the Yankees are reeling right now, we like our chances with Litsch.
This game is action on a Litsch vs Mussina matchup.
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BETTING SYSTEMS DOCUMENT
For those of you purchasing our betting systems document, here are the games falling into our system. The systems document is [61-61, +5 units] this season.
Athletics falls into the following premium systems: RL007
