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Easy Baseball Betting - 6/5/08
If you subscribe to our monthly pick package at $100/mo, we will refund the price of these picks.
We had a very successful 3-1 day yesterday and hit our GOM with the Athletics pretty soundly... now we look to continue this Thursday with another GOM.
Philadelphia Phillies (-220) over Cincinnati Reds (2.0 Units) -
These Phillies are large favorites and it is our goal to not only justify that they deserve to be favorites but justify that they are currently being undervalued. The average margin of victory for a team that is -220 is about 1.4 runs per game which includes both losers and winners. If we condition these teams on WINNING the game, they would win by an average of 3.8 runs.
But obviously there is no way to guarantee that they will win by 3.8 runs but rather they have the means to do so. For example, if a team is averaging 3 or 4 runs per game... we'd never see them as heavy of a favorite as -220 because if they cannot hit the average of margin of victory for a team in that spread range, then they are overvalued.
So whenever we look at heavy favorite teams, we emphasize their ability to score more so than emphasizing their ability to pitch. I mean who cares about their pitching because if not for a strong pitcher on the mound, they'd not be so heavy of a favorite. The converse is true. If we look to bet against a heavy favorite, we'd emphasize their inability to score.
These Phillies are coming off a shut out loss, something we deem to be a strong motivational issue for a team's offense.... with one condition! It is obvious that horrible teams tend to get shutout at a higher rate than normal teams and for us to look at how all teams do after a shutout would be to include far too many horrible teams.
So what puts these Phillies in a different boat is that they are playing at home where they are [20-13, +2 units]. Playing off a loss where they are [17-8, +7 units]. Playing off a shutout where they are [2-0, +2 units]. In a non-divisional rivalry game, where they are [25-15, +9 units].
The Reds are -11 units on the road and -7 units as a dog.
We also like that this is the last game of a series as the Phillies will want to end their home series on a positive note before they head off on the road against the Braves.
All these angles combined with the multitude of systems out there that involves betting on heavy favorites off a loss is key.
This game is action on Cole Hamels pitching.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) over Houston Astros (1.0 Units) -
These Pirates bounced back yesterday off a shut out loss the game prior in a nice way... they won 5-2. What most gamblers don't realize is that these Pirates are actually a pretty good bet this season. They are [28-31, +3 units]. To have a less than 500 record but still be positive units is testament to the fact that they are undervalued and worth a bet under the right circumstances.
For example , they are +5 units in the third game of a series..
But the item we look at the most is how they do when facing a right handed pitcher... They are +6 units in this spot... But the reality is, they are +8 units when facing a pitcher of the same orientation (left/right) as the pitcher they faced the day prior. This is because it allows their hitters to get into a groove.
And the Astros will get to face a lefty for the second straight game but despite being +8 units against righties, they are -1 units against lefties under any circumstance.
In a 3-game series, the advantage lies with the team winning game 2 and with the Pirates strong at home, they will play with a distinct advantage.
This game is action regardless of pitcher.
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Toronto Blue Jays (151) over New York Yankees (1.0 Units) -
We love to go against the Yankees because we feel that they tend to be overvalued far too often.... Evidence of that is the fact that they are -9 units and only 1 game behind 500 while the Pirates as we mentioned above are +3 units and 3 games below 500.
There are several reasons to like the Yankees today. First, they have Wang on the mound. Second, they are the winners of game 2 in a 3 game series. A win today will get them to 500. All the while, these Blue Jays have losers of 3 of the past 4 games. Lastly, they have their ace Wang on the mound.
But that does not mean we'd bet them at any spread.
As a favorites, these Yankees are -11 units this season. They are -6 units against divisional rivals. They are -7 units in the first game of a series. On top of all that they are -11 units against right handed pitching if they faced a right hander the day prior. Why they'd be worse against righties after having faced a righty is contrarion to how it should be but a trend that ought to be followed. Because whenever you can find a team going against a commonly held trend, then it'd be valuable betting on/against them as the sportsbooks may be moving the odds in the opposite way.
This game is action regardless of pitcher..
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BETTING SYSTEMS DOCUMENT
The Pirates fall into our DC System play.
