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EasyBaseballBetting.com - 6/6/08
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Texas Rangers (118) over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.5 Units) -
We've been consistently hitting our higher rated picks this season and we are hoping to continue that streak with these Rangers.
First of all, we are not happy with how these Devil Rays have been playing. They averaged just 2 runs on the road against the Red Sox and got swept. The Rangers, on the other hand, are scoring LOADS of runs. And have been home for a third consecutive home series.
As teams play more and more games at home, their home field advantage increrases due to the lessened affects of traveling, the rest, comfortableness, etc... So the Rangers have a good offense, a more intense home field advantage... and they are facing a team that just cannot seem to score on the road right now.
Kazmir has been pitching well this season but the Rangers are lucky... they faced a lefty in Sabathia yesterday and hit him pretty hard. So the advantage some lefties have by taking a team off their rhythym is shattered today by the fact that these Rangers faced a lefty yesterday. They also faced Kazmir once this season and we feel that with their latest offensive surge, they should benefit from the familiarity at home.
It concerns us, however, that the Rangers are 7-12 against lefties... but we nullify that from what we say above and keep it as a game of the week caliber pick instead of raising it.. But because of that, we do not have to have the game action on Kazmir pitching...
This game is action regardless of pitcher.
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Baltimore Orioles (160) over Toronto Blue Jays (1.0 Units) -
Making the case for a +160 baseball club is not easy but these Orioles are really not that bad of a team. Sure, they are 7 games below 500 on the road but it is not like the Blue Jays are dominant at home themselves nor dominant right now.
The Blue Jays are coming off a long road trip and we are going with the convention that if a team is coming off a long road trip and struggling to win games, that they will not have as strong a home field advantage as you'd expect if you were to remove their road woes... Because it follows them. That convention has not completely held true thus far in the season and you don't see bettors shy to support the Blue Jays but with the Orioles at +160, we cannot resist.
Because if these Orioles were priced at +160 in every road game this season, despite the fact that they are 12-19, they'd still be positive units!!
So really we just have to prove that the Orioles have a slightly better than average chance to win this road game as compared to their other road games.
Blue Jays are struggling. The Orioles are coming off a series win on the road. The Orioles are putting out Burres, a lefty, and these Blue Jays are bottom 5 worst in baseball moneyline against lefties. Whereas the Orioles are top 10 in baseball moneyline against righties...
Despite that, we'll still bet this game action regardless of pitcher.
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St. Louis Cardinals (110) over Houston Astros (1.0 Units) -
We are betting on a team that is 6-4L10 and 10 games above 500 and against the team that is 2-8L10.. You'd think that our team was a heavy favorite but they are not.
These Astros fall into a very similar category as the Blue Jays above... They've been playing on the road and struggling (these Astros are struggling much more) and there's no guarantee that they'd be able to automatically miraculously instantaneously turn this mother around even though they are 15-9 at home. We could be wrong and we'd attest that to maybe the strengthened home field advantage we are seeing this season but probably more likely to the Cardinals having played a doubleheader yesterday in DC and then having to travel to Houston.
The Astros got whooped by a lefty yesterday and face a righty today. That may be fine with them as they are the 7th best team moneyline against righties this season but the Cardinals are 6th best against righties as well. But the Astros are the ones that had to face a lefty yesterday... Changing of pitching momentum like that can cause a 1% decrease in win percentage.
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Philadelphia Phillies (142) over Atlanta Braves (1.0 Units) -
The Phillies are also another significantly undervalued team on our card today. They are 10 games above 500 and 8-2L10. We bet them yesterday believing that they could come back from their shut out loss and they sure did, by shutting out the Reds and winning by 5 runs.
They have a bit of momentum heading on the road today. Sure, the Braves have a HUGE home field advantage (25-8 at home, 7-21 on the road) but it drops just a tad because of how well these Phillies have been playing. And the Phillies are one of the rare teams in baseball that has an above 500 road record and the 7th best road moneyline record.
Both these teams are facing lefties and it is these Phillies that are the second best moneyline team against lefties.
But because we get these Phillies at such a nice spread because they are facing Hudson, it is not imperative that they face him (or any other lefty/righty combo)... So we'll take this game action regardless of pitcher.
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Cleveland Indians (145) over Detroit Tigers (1.0 Units) -
The Tigers do not have much of a home field advantage in general this season so with them coming off of three consecutive losses on the road, we doubt that they would be able to re-energize themselves as at least enough to justify the big spread on this game.
We know that these Tigers have Verlander on the mound but the Indians are a divisional rival ... are heavy underdogs... and putting up a lot of runs... They are averaging almost 10 runs a game their last 4 games. And these Tigers are the league's WORST moneyline team against right handed pitching. They've done well against lefties ..
So as we said yesterday, we define a team's true odds based on the average margin of victory expected in the game, and we expect a very close game because of the Indians' offense and Tigers' inability to hit righties.. as well as a few other angles.
The Indians have a lot of value in this game and we are going to take it action regardless of pitcher.
