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EasyBaseballBetting.com - 6/7/08
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Yesterday is a perfect example as to why we feel we are strong when it comes to betting baseball.. We had five picks, one of which was our stronger (1.5 unit play).. We lost our strong pick but still came out positive on the day by going 3-2 with all dogs. If we had more favorites peppered into the mix, we'd likely have a losing day. Anyways, I go into that because we've got a Game of the Year on tap for today!
Boston Red Sox (-172) over Seattle Mariners (3.0 Units) -
These Red Sox are -172 but don't let that fool you, we think they should be more like -242... which is why we've got the big money on them today.
First, these Red Sox are 24-6 at home...
They lost yesterday to these Mariners but because they got shut out, they will bounce back with a vengeance.
The Mariners are horrible on the road 8-20 so we do not expect they could win a second straight game on the road... not with Batista on the mound. That fool has almost a 6ERA lifetime against the Red Sox and he's given up 3 or more runs in each of his past 6 starts and only one of those games had been on the road.. So you could say this fool is prime to get beat hard on the road.. He faced these Red Sox on May 27 and that familiarity will help the Red Sox looking to bounce back.
I could end the analysis there but check out some of the angles/systems on tap for today... Blindly betting on home favorites <-150 coming off a series opening loss are +49 units last 8 seasons!
The Red Sox are 7-1 when playing at home off a loss this season.. good for +6 units. But that is not an angle that only applies to 2008. They were +11 units in 2007, +3 in 2006, +9 in 2005, +8 in 2004, +7 in 2003.. It is safe to say that these Red Sox step up to the challenge at home....
There's a chance that the Mariners would pull Batista though because the Red Sox will study Batista hard and take advantage of their familiarity with him... BUT we still take this game action regardless of pitcher... because any other pitcher they use would be so weak that the Red Sox would actually be better off facing another pitcher...
Easy winner predicted here.
Chicago Cubs (-123) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) -
After taking 5 dogs yesterday, it feels weird to take two favorites today but these Cubs really do deserve a little bit more credit on the spread than they are getting. The Cubs are only small favorites today because they are playing on the road where they are below 500... At home, they are the third best ML team in baseball.
Despite the Dodgers being above 500 at home, they are still in the bottom third in home moneyline standings. The fact that the Dodgers are in LA, so close to Vegas, they tend to get bet up a little bit more than they normally would.
These Dodgers have seriously failed to show us much in the way of offense. They are averaging only 2 runs per game over their past 4 games and will face the mighty Zambrano, a pitcher we are confident can take advantage of the Dodgers. He faced them on May 28 and only allowed 1 run in 8 innings.
