EasyBaseballBetting.com - June 8, 2008
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New York Mets (-134) over San Diego Padres (1.5 Units) -
We hit our big game of the year yesterday very comfortably... And now we are rolling with the Mets as today's top pick... a game of the week caliber pick. Both of these teams are in second to last place.
Each of the first three games of this series resulted in EXACTLY a 2-1 victory for the Padres... You've heard the saying that it is hard to sweep a team in a 4-game series.. That's a bit true but only if the team down 0-3 is favorite like these Mets... And despite the fact that the Padres have won four consecutive games, they are only averaging 2 runs per game during that span.. So that means their offense is not very good! So we will take our chances with Pedro Martinez on the mound. He pitched back on June 3rd and had a decent start... now he has a perfect opportunity to go up against a baseball team that is averaging only 2 runs per game.
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Baltimore Orioles (204) over Toronto Blue Jays (1.0 Units) -
These Orioles are huge underdogs today and we love the fact that they are up 2-0 in this series. We tend to bet teams up 2-0 in a 3 game series.. especially one that is going up against a divsional rival as an underdog.
The misconception here for this game (as per the reason the odds are really screwed up) is this... The Blue Jays are at home and fighting to avoid a sweep at home with their ACE on the mound (Halladay)... Betting based on those facts would have had only one losing season the past 9 full seasons... and would be +16 units with teams undervalued by around 9 points...
BUT if those teams are going against divisional rivals, they are -4 units and overvalued by about 8 points in over 70 games. So this suggests the premise that the Blue Jays should crush the Orioles with Halladay on the mound is a fallacy. And that they should not be as heavy of a favorite they are. Making this a good value play.
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Boston Red Sox (-118) over Seattle Mariners (1.0 Units) -
We hit the Red Sox on the nail yesterday and don't mind taking them again today... because they are on a serious roll.... And teams that bounce back off a shut out loss to score double digits are generally smart bets the following game.
Just that alone is +25 units the past 9 seasons (only 1 losing season) and represents teams that are 17 points undervalued. Considering the strong home field advantage that the Red Sox have, we'll make this a no-brainer play for us.
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Los Angeles Angels (125) over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units) -
The major reason for these Angels to be as high in the standings as they are is the fact that they are 13-7 against divisional rivals while the Athletics are 7-13. These Athletics have struggled to score in this series against the Angels and we see the Angels getting a sweep today because the Angels are in a serious streak on the road and they are going to want to finish it strong as they head back home. So no letting down for this underdog... We get the value with the dog.
