EasyBaseballBetting.com - 6/9/08

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Arizona Diamondbacks (-123) over Pittsburgh Pirates (1.0 Units) -

We identified three years ago that the home field advantage decreases as the series progresses... so it should not be a surprise to anybody when we say we tend to take the road team in the fourth game of a series. But over the past 3 years since we've been paying close attention to this trend, it has gone the other way -- where home teams started doing better.

Both of these teams are facing lefties and it is the Diamondbacks that are positive units against lefties.. the Pirates are not. Both teams faced a lefty yesterday and because the Pirates got the win, these Diamondbacks may pay close attention to how they fared yesterday and bounce back against Duke. We can say that with confidence because these Pirates are horrible after a win (but great after a loss). After a win, they are [11-18, -6 units] and after a loss are [18-15, +7.6 units]. If they are off just one consecutive win, they are [5-13, -8 units].

We are playing close attention to Randy Johnson here. He's started 10 games this season and has a 3.88 ERA but his team is coming off of 3 consecutive losses when he starts but it is on the road where he's excelled with a 1.93 ERA in 4 road starts. This is a perfect opportunity for him to bounce back and give the Diamondbacks a win against a Pirates team that tends to be complacent after wins... We might see the old dominant self a little bit today.. and that alone is worthy of the small spread here.

This game is action on Randy Johnson pitching.