June 10, 2008 Baseball Picks
Baltimore Orioles (185) over Boston Red Sox (1.0 Units) -
The Orioles are a bold pick for today... we took them in their last game as over +200 underdogs and saw these Orioles only lose by 1 run. Betting is about winning but if we can keep picking +200 teams that lose an average of just 1 run, then we are betting on value... Because we know that a few of them will have, by the nature of randomness, get above the fold.
The Red Sox scare us because of their strong home field advantage, we really don't have to get into that.
We just have to prove the Orioles are undervalued... In the first game of a series, these Orioles are [14-6, +12 units]... which is a sign that this team tends to begin their series prepared for their opponents. Game 2's they are +2 units... then in game 3 they are -10 units. So they do get consistently worse as the series progresses, as their opponent gets more into the series.
So to win this bet, we are hoping that the Red Sox look beyond this game and/or are not prepared. The one benefit the Orioles have is that they are coming off a series against a divisional rivalry opponent.. The Red Sox are coming off a meaningless series against the Mariners. The intensity of games that a team plays translate from series to series. So knowing the Orioles come into a series strong coupled with the intensity factor, we've got to give a little bit of a look to these Orioles at + 185.
This game is action regardless of pitcher.
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St. Louis Cardinals (116) over Cincinnati Reds (1.0 Units) -
The Cardinals play in their third consecutive road series and that does benefit the Reds... as teams continue to play on these road series, the home field advantage of their opponent improves. And despite the fact that these Reds are in last place in the NL Central, they are 19-10 at home. But the Cardinals are one of only three teams in the NL with an above 500 road record! That is why they are +5 units on the road.
The Reds on the other hand are +8 units at home and -13 units on the road.
But we feel that because of their home field advantage, the odds are being set against them for today's game because the wheels on the Reds may have come out... Griffey got his #600 homerun yesterday and it is tough to see what the Reds really have to play for today. After having to travel back home from a road game in which Griffey got his HR could be trouble for the team.
This game is action regardless of pitcher.
-------------Betting Systems Document---------------------
- Orioles falls into the following premium systems: CT
- Cardinals falls into the following premium systems: DI
