May 4, 2008 Baseball Picks

Toronto Blue Jays (-160) over Chicago White Sox (1.0 Units) - Halladay has had a decent season thus far but it is the Blue Jays offense that is letting him down. They've averaged just 2 runs per game over his last 4 starts... so no wonder he is just 2-4 on the season. He's got a comparable ERA to his past 2 seasons where he ended up a combined 32-12. So Halladay, if chosen the right time, will stand to have a great game. The Blue Jays offense has been despicable as of late the same can be said of the White Sox. During this road trip, the White Sox are averaging 1.5 runs per game. So to go up against Halladay under those circumstances will be devastating for their already meager offense. We expect a very low scoring game but something that ends up looking like 4-1 or so. This game is action on Halladay pitching.

NOT A PICK

What would ordinarily make these Royals a slight statistical advantage when considering their +150 odds is the fact that they get to face a lefty for a second straight game. Familiarity and comfort in battling a lefty improves a team's performance by as much as 10% (L-->L) than if they were to face a slew of righties beforehand.

But here's the problem. Road divisional rival underdogs in the Royals situation facing a lefty for the second straight game (if they won the first game) are a paltry [54-96, -21 units], overvalued by an average of 14 points.

NOT A PICK

Getting the Astros as a home dog at +132 is generally a strong bet but Ben Sheets has been near unstoppable this season and the Brewers are fighting to avoid a sweep... But are they overvalued if you are betting them at -140? Road favorites more than -130 going against a divisional rival are on a 16-2 roll when fighting off a sweep.