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May 5, 2008 Picks
Boston Red Sox (-108) over Detroit Tigers (3.0 Units) - It has been over a month into the season and we've not had a play rated stronger than Game of the Week until today... these Red Sox is our Early Season Momentum GOY. The Red Sox are currently tied for the best record in the American League. These Tigers are not much better than being the worst.
These Red Sox are small road favorites today because they are playing on the road against Bonderman. But first, Bonderman has not had a good season. Second, these Tigers have hardly had a good home field advantage this season (6-8). Third, Matsuzaka has been on a roll this season, giving up just 10 earned runs in 6 starts.
The Tigers have to travel from Minnesota to Detroit knowing that they've just got swept, something historically known to negate any home field advantage that a team may have. This game is action on Matsuzaka pitching.
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Chicago Cubs (101) over Cincinnati Reds (1.5 Units) - If the sportsbooks spent a little bit more time determining the odds in their games, they would NOT have these Reds as small favorites. You've got 4-0 Dempster against nobody Cueto, advantage: Cubs. The Cubs are 18-13 while the Reds are 12-20, advantage: Cubs. The Reds are on a five-game losing streak, advantage: Cubs.
Home divisional rival favorites are [103-99, -35 units] over the past 9 seasons if they have a 5+ game losing streak... including -18 units dating back to the beginning of last season. This game is action on Dempster pitching.
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Texas Rangers (119) over Seattle Mariners (1.5 Units) -
We are taking the Cubs and the Red Sox above based on their strong record thus far in the season knowing that there's value in getting them as underdogs so why do we take these Rangers today? Because they are on a roll. They almost swept the Athletics yesterday in what was a series in which their pitching really stepped up.
These Mariners, on the other hand, are coming into this series with absolutely no offense. They are averaging less than 2 runs per game over their past 5 games and just as we decided to pick Halladay yesterday against a struggling offense, we've got to pick these Rangers against a struggling offense as well. If you were to look at all of Millwood's starts sans his past 2 outings, you'd see that he has done quite well and what better chance for him to have a bounce back game than to do it against a divisional rival that cannot find homeplate.
This game is action on Millwood pitching.
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Los Angeles Angels (-135) over Kansas City Royals (1.0 Units) - Sometimes when we pick favorites like these Angels, it is because of sheer respect with have for them and disrespect we have for the Royals. The Angels had to travel from home to Missouri last night and Ervin Santana is not nearly as good on the road as he is at home but these Royals are
