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May 9, 2008 Baseball Picks
We've been doing quite well with our picks rated above 1.5 units but struggling a bit on the 1.0 unit picks... We've got 4 total picks for today, let's see how it goes.
St. Louis Cardinals (111) over Milwaukee Brewers (1.5 Units) - The Brewers have lost 6 straight games, are struggling to score, and you expect them to hold their own as a favorite against the best team in the division? You've got to be kidding. We understand that the Brewers' woes occurred on the road and can tend to be nullified as soon as they return home but there has not been even an ounce of positive that came out of their road trip.
In the past 3 seasons, favorites at home that come into a first game of a series are [16-20, -10 units] if they have lost 5 or more games in their road trip. It worsens to [6-12, -11 units] for NL teams. Woeful offenses have an even harder time to bounce back in the national league because every ninth batter is a guaranteed out and it becomes harder to string together big innings in the NL. Thus, the woeful performances of these Brewers on the road will have trouble translating back home. When looking at the past 10 seasons, we see that NL teams in this situation are about 20 points overvalued. Meaning that this game could be a Cardinals -109 but you get it at plus money.
The Cardinals are 10-3 off a loss this season (3-0) when off two consecutive losses. The only thing that keeps this game from popping big time for us as a GOM or GOY is the fact that the Carrdinals are facing a lefty. Despite going 16-6 against righties, they are only 6-7 against lefties.
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Florida Marlins (121) over Washington Nationals (1.0 Units) - The Marlins are one of the best NL teams in baseball right now. They had a very successful home swing and we expect them to continue that momentum onto the road as a doggy.
In the Cardinals analysis, we mentioned how woes on the road don't always transform into woes at home (with respect to the Brewers)... the same is true for success at home does not always translate to success on the road. Check this out, road dogs in divisional rival games with a 4+ game winning streak at home coming into the game is only [23-35, -6 units] coming into the game. Now this is not to discredit the Marlins situation but just to point out that success in baseball can be halted by a change in the home/road dynamics.
But what makes this pick differently is the fact that these Marlins have been scoring runs like crazy. Looking at those 58 games, you would see that if the team is averaging less than 5 runs per game, then they are 3-10, -6 units. So how well an offense is doing has a bearing on their future. And not only are these Marlins putting up points on the board but they are also doing very well pitching wise -- having given up less than 2 runs per game the past 4 games.
Their bullpen has had to eat up a bunch of innings, however, because Hendrickson only pitched 4.1 innings yesterday but I expect the Marlins to be ready to start off this road trip really strong and use their bullpen when and if necessary.
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Colorado Rockies (146) over San Diego Padres (1.0 Units) - Two starting pitchers that are a combined 9-2 on the year. Folks are not apt to go against Jake Peavy at home but when we get the Rockies at +146, we'll take our chances. The Rockies fall into a very simple betting angle that involves betting against a heavy divsional rival favorite if they have won fewer than 5 games in their last 10. These Padres have only won 2. And they are lacking offense in those games so I have trouble seeing their offense come back ready to face Cook today. This game is action on Cook pitching.
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Seattle Mariners (-113) over Chicago White Sox (1.0 Units) - These Mariners TOTALLY do not fit into our formula for betting. They've lost 3 straight games and only scored 1 run in those games.
But teams that have gotten shut out twice in a row come start off their next series strong. They are [25-14, +16 units] over the past 5 seasons. It improves to [20-5, +14 units] if those teams are favorite. So we like the positions these Mariners find themselves in.
