May 11, 2008 Baseball Picks
Florida Marlins (115) over Washington Nationals (1.0 Units) - It was as we said yesterday about teams with a greater than 55% baseball record being positive units historically as an underdog. We are also riding on a system that involves betting on teams up 2-0 in a series looking to get a 3-game sweep.
Keep in mind that these Marlins have been consistently undervalued all season as the oddsmakers do not really trust the viability of this team... as per the Yahoo sports synopsis of today's game. "The Florida Marlins are one of the biggest surprises in baseball".
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Chicago Cubs (-150) over Arizona Diamondbacks (1.0 Units) -
The Diamondbacks fit into our system for betting on underdogs with a greater than 55% record BUT we got to look at it in stride whenever it comes up. These Cubs have Zambrano, their ace, on the mound. All the while Randy Johnson is out there hurling for the Diamondbacks and he's old a decrepit. We have got to trust that these Cubs will ride this game out and get the necessary 3 game sweep.
Check this tidbit of information out... Teams up 2-0 in a series that have swept its opponent are -10 units over the past 9 full seasons... only 2 winning seasons. So it does not bode well for the Cubs, right? Wrong. If we narrow it down to the favorites of -135 or better, we get a system that is [58-23, +15 units]. So despite the fact that the Diamondbacks are in a decent motivated position to a) avoid a sweep and b) bounceback off yesterday's shut out loss... history suggests that it is not possible when they are forced to go up against strong pitching. Zambrano will shut them out.
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Philadelphia Phillies (-108) over San Francisco Giants (1.0 Units) - The Phillies have been interchanging wins and losses and a win is just what they need today to cap off a mediocre road trip. That's right... they will see this game as a launching off point to have a successful road swing starting on Tuesday against the Braves, a divisional rival. It is like the looking ahead factor in basketball except that it moves to the benefit of the Phillies.
All this really does, however, is negates the home field advantage that the Giants have. And if that is taken into account, the Phillies would clearly be favorite by a bit more. And second, in a 3-game series, the advantage goes to the team that has won game 2.
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Los Angeles Angels (-107) over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.0 Units) -
Teams that got shut out in the first 2 games of a series bounce back in game 3... Dating back to the beginning of 3 seasons ago, this angle has gone 8-1. Over the past 9 seasons, we see that teams in this spot have been undervalued by about 20 points. So sure, the fact that the Angels offense is struggling is a problem... their motivation to right the wrongs in game 3 is amplified. Favorites in this position are [7-2, +5 units].
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Texas Rangers (117) over Oakland Athletics (1.0 Units) -
These Rangers are winners of 5 straight and as a divisional rival underdog, odds are that they will get the sweep today. They are giving up an average of just 1 run during that span.
Home dogs in a divisional rival game looking to get a 3-game sweep are +8 units the past 9 seasons. May not seem that impressive but there were only 2 losing seasons during that stretch. And if we focus in on teams that have won more than 6 games in their last 10, we'd notice that they are undervalued by about 13 points during the 9 year stretch.
