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May 12, 2008 Baseball Picks
Boston Red Sox (-131) over Minnesota Twins (1.5 Units) -
These Red Sox were our GOY winners on Monday of last week and now we've seriously got them pegged as a game of the week quality pick for this week.
Both of these teams are leading their division but the Red Sox are the only AL team winning above 0.600.
What makes this game interesting is that this is a 4-game series between two non-divisional rivals. We've charted out the impact of the home field advantage with respect to the game in a series and have noticed that as games progress through the series, the home field advantage lessens to the point it is completely nullified by game 4. This means that the Twins do not have any home field advantage for this game.
Favorites in a non-divisional rival 4th game of a series are +32 units over the past 7 full seasons, including 10-2 this season.
This game is action regardless of pitcher.
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Florida Marlins (156) over Cincinnati Reds (1.0 Units) -
The Marlins have a 0.622 record and are on a major 7-game winning streak. Underdogs greater than +135 with a better than 0.55 record are +85 units the past 8 full seasons, including +20 units dating back to the beginning of last season. There was only one losing season during that span so this is a pretty successful system to use while betting.
If those teams have 6 or more wins in their last 10 games, these teams are still a whopping +78 units and undervalued by about 11.5 units a game.
This game is action regardless of pitcher.
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Texas Rangers (110) over Seattle Mariners (1.0 Units) -
Both of these teams are not having that great of a season thus far and as a result does not get a lot of attention by the sportsbooks. This makes it perfect for us to come in and swoop in by betting the underdog of this divisional rival game.
Divisional rival underdogs that have won more than 6 games last 10 and going against an opponent with fewer than 5 wins last 10 are +24 units the past 9 full seasons excluding this season. And when it has been the first game of a series, we see those teams are undervalued by almost 20 points per game. This suggests that the streaking team, despite being an underdog, will be the most likely to get in a punch in game 1.
