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May 14, 2008 Baseball Picks
We had an impressive 4-1 day yesterday taking mostly underdogs... Our only favorite, if you want to call them that, were the Brewers at -106. We had our big play of the day, the Devil Rays, in an extra inning squeaker!!!
So despite the fact that we had so much action yesterday, we only have 2 picks for today..
Florida Marlins (123) over Cincinnati Reds (1.0 Units) -
Don't you just love getting teams like the Marlins at such undervalued odds? I mean who do the Reds think they are getting such heavy points? Bronson Arroyo has been a major major bust this season despite the fact that they are 3-5 with him on the mound this season.
The Reds are only 12-21 this season when Volquez is NOT pitching so their prospects on any given day is actually pretty bad. Here's the situation today though: they are up 2-0 in a 4-game series. We usually go for teams up 2-0 looking for a sweep but not with game 4 on deck. There's still a chance for the Marlins to turn this ship around as they feel so they'd be less likely to give up this game than if there was only 3 games and they had someone like a divisional rival on deck or something (like the Mets)... There's no looking ahead here, just a raw turnaround in the series.
Here are the stats... teams down 2-0 within a 4-game series are +32 units the past 4 seasons! Over the past 8 full seasons, they are +40 units in this spot if they are non-divisional rivals (undervalued by almost 15 points a game). The non-divisional rival issue comes into play because that would give extra incentive for the team up 2-0 to lick their chops for a full 4-game sweep. But without that incentive, it is just another one of 162 games of the season. But the team down 2-0 will always look to turn it around.
In fact, if we were to narrow down our sample to divisional rival games where the team down 2-0 has a better than 55% record, then we'd be taking a team that is overvalued by about 6 points a game... make that a non-divsional rival and the team is undervalued by about 10 points. A big swing, eh?
So yea, we like these Marlins as an underdog today playing a team that is easily one of the worst teams in baseball that although has 2 straight wins and appears to have dominance in the series... our system shows that won't last... Take the Marlins action regardless of pitcher.
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Tampa Bay Devil Rays (-137) over New York Yankees (1.0 Units) -
Here's the dilemma when you rely too much on betting systems to make your picks, sometimes you just keep betting on the same damn team over and over because they keep falling in the same slew of systems. I learned that at a very young age when I first started betting! I went against the Yankees and Red Sox (in different series) for four straight games... and next thing you know, I went 0-8 right before the All Star Break. I was devastated because I just started gambling and thought I was some hotshot mathematician that knows my shit... Well, after a couple of years of seasoning, I've learned to take it all in stride and focus in on each of the games individually but using the systems to help make an ultimate decision...
I say that because we are taking these Devil Rays again just as we did yesterday.
When we made our Devil Rays pick yesterday, this is what we said:
- Wang's career road ERA being 1.2 higher than his home ERA.
- Devil Rays giving up just 1.5 runs per game in this home series.
- The Yankees are mired in a road trip and may struggle offensively.
- Devil Rays to use bullpen as necessary to make sure they win.
Nothing has changed except for Wang! And these Yankees are 12-19 when Wang is NOT their starter. Given that fact, we've got to treat them as the worst team in baseball. So what do you think the odds would be for the worst team in baseball going up against the Devil Rays after losing on the road in extra innings, struggling to score runs against a team that is shutting everybody out with a pitcher who has a 1.16 ERA at home this season??? Not to mention that opponent has the best record in baseball, 6 straight victories, blah blah. You'd think the odds would be -200 wouldn't you?
Well we would have treated it as such if the D'rays had a pitcher we felt we could trust a little bit more than Shields but nevertheless, this is a damn good pick but still only rated as 1.0 Units.
Take the Devil Rays action on Shields pitching for the Devil Rays.
