May 15, 2008 Baseball Picks

Houston Astros (130) over San Francisco Giants (1.0 Units) -

Tough loss yesterday with those Devil Rays. I mean we were confident that the Yankees offense would sputter but no way did we expect Mussina to have the kind of game that he did. One pitcher can make or break a bet. And in today's pick, we've got Lincecum pitching for the Giants who is 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA in 7 starts. His home ERA is actually a bit higher at 2.67.

What convinces us that this is a good bet is that these Astros are a team that has won 8 of 10 games yet is looking to bounce back off a loss... Teams that win a large number of games have a lot of momentum and those are the types of teams you can rely on to bounce back off a loss. A team that consistently loses like the Nationals, on the other hand, would not.

The other issue here is the fact that the road team in the fourth game of a series tends to be a bit undervalued because the home field advantage diminishes as you progress through in a series.

So what is brewing here is a bunch of small little elements that each individually suggest the Astros are undervalued combining to form a strong premium pick we feel has value. This game is action regardless of pitcher.