May 16, 2008 Baseball Picks
Interleague is here baby and this is where we tend to perform the best!! We love it ... all the rules we've used thus far do not even count because capping the Interleague games is wholly different. We tend to bet up a lot of home teams and a lot of favorites.
Here's why:
Blindly betting on home teams in interleague games has gone +79 units the past 8 full seasons.. BLINDLY!! If those mofos were favorite, it would still be +68 units... Home teams is where the value is at... Look at it from the road team's perspective.. You're playing a long ass 162 game season travelling to a city you don't usually go to. Lots of players invite their families along during these games (they're only allowed family to join in 2 road series' I believe). Then you've got the who cares about the opponent. And then you've got the uncertainty and unknown about how to hit in the ballpark, how to field properly in the ball park. Then NL teams are forced to put out a DH and the DH in the NL is so much weaker than in the AL so it is unfair for the NL. The same is true vice versa. AL pitchers suck when they bat in the NL and because they know nothing about sacrificing etc, AL teams are at a disadvantage on the road as well. The home field advantage just simply matters too much and if you've followed our picks for the past 4 years, you'd know that is how we feel.
Here's the caveat though. I think our presence and constant bickering about this is causing the sportsbooks to get a little bit smarter about how they do the odds in these games. When we were completely free service the past 2-3 seasons, we seriously got so much traffic and too many mofos were betting with us that our interleague picks were getting devalued. We want to continue making money as long as we can and we'll continue to monitor the home field advantage in interleague games but because we're getting our first shot now, we've just got to assume it is still valid...
We've got two interleague picks and one regular pick for today.
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New York Yankees (128) over New York Mets (1.0 Units) - AL home favorites have a better advantage than NL home favorites because of the DH. NL teams simply do not get much better by adding a DH to their team to really compare with AL teams that are born and bred with a DH as part of the fabric of the team.
So it was obvious that we would consider the Yankees today as an underdog... Why they are underdogs is obvious ... they are going up against Johan Santana. And the good thing about Santana is that he was in the AL and is comfortable pitching in Yankees stadium. Can't say that for many pitchers...
But here's the problem... the Mets were struggling to score the past 2 games and for a team to start a road series after a long home swing and have some offensive concerns is a very tricky bet. We've just got to go with the home dog here even though they, themselves, seriously don't know where the home plate is, averaging just 1.5 runs per game their past 4 games. But in their case, coming back home to Yankees stadium may help them out. Besides, the Devil Rays have been pitching out of their mind all year and they are 16-8 at home, dont blame the Yankees for their struggles on the road.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-127) over Detroit Tigers (1.0 Units) -
The Diamondbacks are 26-15 this season with a 17-7 home record against the NL. Just imagine how they'd do against a horrible AL road team. The Diamondbacks are just pure value when taking into account all that we've said already about Interleague games.
I seriously do not have to get into this any more than I have except to say watch out for the Dbacks, they are coming into this game having swept their past opponent.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (130) over Chicago Cubs (1.0 Units) -
We are going out on a limb today by taking a 8-13 road team against a 17-7 home team! But the Pirates come into this game knowing that they won their last series against the Cardinals. That is a small psychological boost. Then you've got the fact that these Cubs are in a bit of a bind...
According to Yahoo Sports, "Now that Jim Edmonds officially is a member of the Cubs, manager Lou Piniella will have to divide playing time in center field between Edmonds and Reed Johnson." ... uncertainty sucks... The pressure is on baby. I mean it is not that big of a deal because it is something that involves just one position player but it still can affect the mood of a clubhouse. Uncertainty is never good because whatever moves Piniella makes will be dissected by the media to pieces. So his decisions will not be great (at least I dont think so) and this is another little boost.
Teams usually struggle a bit against lefties after facing a righty but that is not the case with these Cubbies this season. They are 9-4 versus lefties but Gorzelanny is a dude that has a lot of potential. His record and ERA are nothing special but he's only had 2 out of 7 poor starts and when his starts are poor, they are REALLY poor. So today you will either see the Cubs come out in front in a HUGE way because they hit lefties well and make us look like fools for backing the Pirates... or you'll see a closely fought battle that could go either way... And in such a case, we like taking the DOG.
