EasyBaseballBetting.com - 5/18 Writeup

Went 2-1 yesterday but probably could have gone 3-0. Those damn Diamondbacks had an error which allowed the Tigers to get 2 unearned runs... we expect that from the road team not the home team! haha! That's alright because we correctly identified that the Padres would struggle offensively against a lefty today and that Burnett from the Blue Jays would do well because of his prior experience in the NL.

I received an interesting email from one of my subscribers about the Phillies-Blue Jays game and giving me bullets as to why it is the Phillies that should have been picks. And he basically just reiterated things that I have normally said with respect to making picks. I thought it was important to discuss my thought process in making that as a pick despite the many factors that suggested the other team as a pick. Even though we won betting the Blue Jays, it is still important to go back and analyze how the games played out so that when games like this pop up again, you'll be even more prepared.

I got really picky for today's games because it is the third game of a series. And these kinds of games tend to have A LOT of variables at work. Teams looking for a sweep or to avoid one. Teams looking to win the series if it was split 1-1. And because this is a young season, I'd rather just sit today out and observe the games before really unleashing all of the systems and trends that I have known to work and bet accordingly.

I might still have more picks today but because I try to get my picks out to you guys by 6AM EST, I will send you whatever I have.

Thus far in the season, it is quite clear that home teams in interleague games are still asserting dominance... They have been undervalued by about 12 points this season according to the results of the games thus far which falls in line with the two most successful years out of the past 9 seasons... But obviously two days mean nothing in terms of a sample size, it is still important to follow that.

With all of that said, I've got just one pick for you all today.

Los Angeles Angels (-121) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) -

This game is actually pretty simple to analyze. This is the third game of a series and the winner will win the series, so we expect both teams to take the game seriously. It is also a matchup of Southern California teams that have a sort of media created rivalry... i.e. whose fans are better, etc etc.. But anyways, we USUALLY say that the winner of game 2 benefits in a three game series split at 1:1 because momentum favors the winner of game 2. But this is an interleague game so we handicap it differently.

We looked at how interleague home favorites do in the third game of a series when the series is tied one-one. If they are coming off a win, the teams is overvalued by about 19 points versus just 6 points if they are coming off a loss. Now that 6 points is very negligible because if you were to blindly bet on teams, you'd fall in around that range... Meaning that it is a null factor. BUT what this proves to us is that when Interleague home favorites win in game 2, they will be overvalued by an extra 13 points or so in the third game if they are a favorite. That is because they already get a lot of betting action as a favorite and folks love to bet up favorites they perceive to be winners. So the win basically devalues the odds like crazy. So these Angels could just as easily have opened up at -134 and folks would not have batted an eye. But we see that as extra value.

Here is another interesting point: Interleague home favorites looking to bounce back off a loss: +56 units the past 8 full seasons, just one losing season in that span (last year).

But what really seals the pick for us (remember the system above showed the game as a null system) was the fact that Weaver is coming off a one-hitter. Weaver has had a crappy season thus far but he has a 2.00 ERA at home that includes two shutouts. The problem with the Angels is not of how he's pitching but with the number of runs they score. We do not necessarily think they will score a lot of runs today but we think that Weaver will benefit by being able to have two consecutive home starts and do it against a weak National League foe. So this game is action on Weaver pitching.

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