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May 20 Picks
We've been winning a lot of games lately and as you can tell, we rarely ever rate a game above 1.0 units... but today, we've got 3 of them! We tend to be very exclusive with our higher rated picks because we measure each game with how much value we perceive the team we are betting on has. So if they have about 15 points of value on the spread, they'd be 1.0 unit. It would take about 30 points of value to get up to a 2.0 unit play. And much more for our highest rated game of the year quality pick at 3.0 units.
So just rest assured we feel confident with these games today.
Researching close to every game takes time and due to time constraints today, I am only going to be able to provide the full writeups for the top 3 games today... the other 2 games are provided here as well of course with a little one-liner.
We went 2-1 yesterday with big underdogs and it was our loser pick, the Astros, that I mauled over quite a bit thinking whether I wanted to take them or not. But the fact that these Cubs are now 15-2 as a small favorite worries me... and I'd rather sit it out.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (-123) over Oakland Athletics (2.0 Units) -
It is tough finding value betting on favorites because they are by nature overvalued but we look at these Devil Rays a bit differently. Folks are just so used to seeing them as one of the AL's worst teams (past several years) that they are not bet up in situations another team might be.
But of all favorites, it is the road favorites in non-divisional rivalry games that are the best. Because if home dogs are undervalued in divisional rivalry games, it makes sense that they'd be overvalued in non-divisional rivalry games. It just has to do with how they do the calculation more than anything else.
Home cooking helped the A's out a bunch on Monday, allowing them to score 6 runs after have such a horrible road trip offensively. It was still not enough to get the win and that will hurt them because they've awoken the beast.... the D'rays! In almost every situation, these Devil Rays are positive units.
+3 units as a favorite. +3.5 units off a win. +3 units in the second game of a series. +1 units on the road.
Road favorites playing a non-divisional rival in the second game of a series is on a tear dating back to the beginning of two seasons ago: [36-18, +14 units] provided that they won game 1 and their opponent has fewer than 2 wins last 5... and if our team has more than 6 wins last 10, it is +25 units over the past 6 seasons.... including 1-0 this year. So the key here is that we are betting on a winning team when they are expected to win (as defined by being a favorite) against a struggling team that already lost game 1. This system alone shows an undervalued team of 20 points. But we increase that projection based on how they've performed thus far in the season and the downward offensive spiral of these A's. blah blah...
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Baltimore Orioles (137) over New York Yankees (1.5 Units) -
I am not even sure these Yankees should be favorite anymore right now but forget about that... just look at how many angles these Orioles find themselves in! It is ridiculous.
A) The Orioles are an underdog in a divisional rival series = value.
B) The Yankees are the Yankees and betting against them is value.
C) The Orioles are 7-3L10, Yankees are 3-7L10 = value.
D) The Yankees just got swept.... AT HOME = value. (I know it was only 2 games but it still count).
E) The Orioles are 7-3L10 and looking to bounceback off a loss.
Oh wait a minute I forgot.. A Rod is coming back. His presence alone will magically have some enormous impact on this very horrible team and make them worthy of such odds... Ummmm I am not buying it, not now.
If we were to create booleans out of the statements above, concatenate them into systems, we'd have money systems all over the board.
For example, putting A and C together in some variant form, we get a [94-80, +45 unit system]. etc etc... Now the sad thing about all of this is the hype that ARod will return only devalues the Yankees in my mind.
Here is what Yahoo Sports had to say:
"Owners of a three-game losing streak and a slumping offense, the last-place New York Yankees are in need of something to change their fortunes. Perhaps the return of the reigning AL MVP will help."
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Chicago White Sox (109) over Cleveland Indians (1.5 Units) -
What makes these White Sox an irresistible pick is the fact that they are bringing a 5 game road winning streak into this game. Winning on the road is NOT easy and they've done it 5 in a row. So we expect that by them coming home, they'll be murder on these Indians... ummm was that politically incorrect? Sorry. Anyways, to top it off we get them as a home dog in a divisional rivalry game. Just too many decent systems combined on this play we cannot resist.
Check this out my friends... blindly betting on home underdogs coming off a road trip consisting of more than 1 series and having 5 or more consecutive wins is undervalued by an average of 16 points but with a small sample size. But if we drop that number down to 3 or more consecutive wins to increase the sample size, we are left with a betting system that is 5-0 this season... +30 units the past 8 full seasons with only 1 losing season and that year it went -1 units.
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Washington Nationals (142) over Philadelphia Phillies (1.0 Units) -
(The Phillies are questionable offensively and no way should be laying so many odds on the road. )
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Texas Rangers (114) over Minnesota Twins (1.0 Units) -
(Rangers have been losing but offensively they've still been solid. Can't say the same about the Twins).
