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EasyBaseballBetting.com - May 23, 2008
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Baltimore Orioles (125) over Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1.5 Units) -
We had a slight bounce back yesterday by going 2-1 but lost our big 1.5 unit play on those Orioles... But getting a +147 team that lost 2-1 is still pretty decent and we mention that because we plan on taking these Orioles again today as a 1.5 unit play.
Taking these Orioles again and at 1.5 units does not phase us. Three of the past 4 games, these Orioles have either scored 1 run or less... ouch! But these Devil Rays are coming off a long road trip and they, themselves, will not be in as great a position.
It is +58 units to take a divisional rivalry underdog on the road that is playing a team coming off a road trip longer than 1 series... This is over the past 9 full season and there were only 2 losing seasons. The teams in that spot are undervalued by an average of about 7 points.
We've made it clear all year long that intensity / momentum are important. These Orioles are coming off a divisional rivalry series while the Devil Rays are not. That makes the intensity and concentration with which the Orioles are playing at their peak. And when looking at the games detailed above in which our team is coming off a divisional rivalry series and against a team coming off a non-div series, our team is +28 units but this time undervalued by 17 points!
We are not happy with the fact that these Orioles are playing bad but it is one thing to play bad in meaningless games but because they did play on the road against the Yankees, we'll give them a bit of a pass.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (157) over Chicago Cubs (1.0 Units) -
We found earlier that these Cubs are impressive as small favorites... [13-6, +6 units] when anywhere between -101 and -130. And impressive as larger favorites [13-5, +4 units]. But as road favorites, these Cubs are [7-5, +1.23 units]. That is still pretty good but no way near the value they'd be if they were at home.
Now we see them at a ridiculous price just because Zambrano is on the mound. Zambrano may have a great season thus far in the season but he's only pitched three times on the road... His past two road starts were shutouts but his other start was his worst of the season. And his second worst start of the season was against these Pirates. So we'll take a chance on these Pirates because we get them at a high price.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-152) over Kansas City Royals (1.0 Units) -
The Blue Jays are in a mini and unique position that very few people look to bet.... and that is they are looking to get back up to 500. Teams that are expected to win (being favorites) at exactly one-game behind 500 is a good bet specifically for a team like the Blue Jays that have been on a constant upward path. Teams that go up and down about the 500 mark see that position so often that it is not exactly important for them.. so these Blue Jays are different.
The other point is that Halladay is on the mound. His record may not be the greatest but almost all of his starts have been on the road! This time he will come home to roost and take advantage of these Royals. Not only are these Royals in a downward spiral (4 straight losses), they are in their third consecutive road series... something that is generally a good predictor of road woes.
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