NEW: Follow us on Twitter!
EasyBaseballBetting.com - May 25, 2008
Subscribe to our monthly picks package ($100/month) and be refunded the price you paid for this pick.
----------------------------
Chicago White Sox (103) over Los Angeles Angels (2.0 Units) -
These White Sox are fighting to avoid a sweep today and that's why we are calling it a "Fighting off a Sweep Game of the Month pick". They've only scored one run in this home series but they are going to do whatever they can to be certain to begin their road trip on a positive note. They are not going to want to lose today at home heading into their road trip so the effect of that is just magnifies their home field advantage today.
We took a look at how home teams did when avoiding a sweep before heading to the road and did not catch any discernible system.. it went [255-240, -12 units]. You would do no better (or worse) if picking those games at random.
But what makes these White Sox different from any other team in this position is that they are 8-2 in their last 10 games... so it is absurd to believe that they've automatically gone from such a strong streaking team to horrible. If we were to look at how these teams did if they had 3 wins before their 2 losses, we'd learn that they are undervalued by about 8 points.
Another angle that predicts teams to be undervalued by 10 points are to take teams that have won 3+ games in a row and then lost 2 straight games... and then playing at home as an underdog against a non-divisional rival.
What makes this a 2.0 unit play is Contreras pitching, so make sure you have the game action on Contreras.
----------------------------
Philadelphia Phillies (-160) over Houston Astros (1.5 Units) -
These Phillies fall into very similar systems as the White Sox... but what makes the Phillies a bit stronger is a) they are favorites against a non-divisional rival and b) they lost two consecutive one-run games. We rely a lot on systems for betting on teams that come off two consecutive one-run games. They tend to play with a lot more concentration in their next game.
----------------------------
New York Yankees (-230) over Seattle Mariners (1.0 Units) -
We dont always take favorites specifically one as large as the Yankees but we love the Yankees today. First, they've scored double digit runs in two consecutive games... that bodes well for any team's offense, specifically one going up against Washburn and his shaky season this year. Then they have Wang on the mound who is obviously their ace. The last most important reason to bet the Yankees is the fact that they are 1 win away from getting to 500 and teams in that spot play with an extra sense of verocity because it is a psychological feat to be had. And in such a long season, you'll take any kind of motivation you can get. Washburn is going to be sorry to go after the Yankees bats today. This game is action on a Wang-Washburn matchup.
