EasyBaseballBetting.com - May 27, 2008
If you purchase our monthly subscription at $100/month, you will be refunded these picks...
Minnesota Twins (116) over Kansas City Royals (1.5 Units) -
With the Royals having lost 8 straight games, to think they should be favorite under any circumstance is quite ridiculous. Favorites that have lost 5+ straight games are -19 units overall against divisional rivalry teams. It gets worse for teams at home, they are -27 units and overvalued by 12 points.
The Royals averaged just 1 run per game their whole 4 game series against the Blue Jays and they are reeling... Home can be exactly what they need to get into the groove but as the angle above suggests, home teams tend to be overvalued when they are losing.. Meaning the points the sportsbooks are adding onto the Royals for their home field advantage probably should never have been added on.
------------------------------------
Florida Marlins (179) over New York Mets (1.0 Units) -
This is a tale of two different teams. One team is winners of 3 straight and 7-3L10 while the other is losers of 2 straight and 3-7L10. The Marlins have been completely undervalued all season despite the fact that they have the league's best record.... just 0.5 game shy of having the best record in baseball.
In fact, these Marlins are the best Moneyline team in baseball at +13 units. The Red Sox with a very similar record are only +7 units... so you can see the disparity there. The Mets are one of the worst ML teams. Blindly betting on ANY team with 7 or more wins L10 and has an odds of over +150 has gone +59 units the past 6 full seasons, with only one loser season. It was +18 units last year.
Santana may be a great pitcher but he is far from being dominant this season so taking these Marlins at such a disrespected odds is value.
------------------------------------
Chicago Cubs (-105) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) -
We tried going against these Cubs as a favorite only to lose back on Friday and then they came back losers on Saturday and Sunday. ... But now that we've got them at home, the tables have turned. The Cubs are 14-7 as a small favorite this season but 9-1 if at home .... And +8 units in that spot.
The Cubs had a change in momentum by coming home and they should continue with their home dominance. Also look at how poorly these Dodgers are batting. They've scored 1 or fewer runs in 3 of their past 4 games... They've been strong pitching but these Cubs have the advantage by being at home.
------------------------------------
Pittsburgh Pirates (137) over Cincinnati Reds (1.0 Units) -
The Pirates finished off their home swing on a very positive note by winning the series against the Cubs and winning two very close 1-run games against them. This bodes well for them as they look to continue that momentum against the Reds. The Reds were on a road trip but did not do very well themselves either. They played a weak non-divsional rival in the Padres for 4 games and then the Dodgers after that all the while these Pirates played against a top divisional rival in the Cubs. We've found intensity in baseball to be a very strong predictive entity... in that teams coming off intense important games tend to play better against teams playing meaningless games against interleague teams or non-divisional teams. The fact that both these teams are under 500 and have very little chance of making the playoffs, the Pirates are in the advantage.
In fact, I just plugged all this information that I blabbered on about into my program to see how it has done and was surprised to find that it is +70 units over the past 9 full seasons. [96-81, +70 units]... undervalued by 36 points. Funny that the spread here is +137 suggesting this game should be even money.
Basically, here the system was: Take dogs over 120 in a divisional rivalry game in the first game of a series so long as their previous game was a divisional rivalry game and their opponent's was not. One last criteria was that our teams is coming off a win.
------------------------------------
Chicago White Sox (130) over Cleveland Indians (1.0 Units) -
With the White Sox at 8-2 L10 and winners of 2 straight, it is hard to see why they would be +130. Buehrle has not had a great season thus far but a team's winning ways is all it takes to reverse a pitchers' fortunes sometimes. Then you also have to figure that these Indians are in such a downward spiral that they should not be given any home field advantage right now.
------------------------------------
