EasyBaseballBetting.com - May 29, 2008

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New York Mets (-112) over Los Angeles Dodgers (1.0 Units) -

These Dodgers have been pitching well over the past several games but they just can't seem to find home plate -- scoring just 1 run in each of the past 3 games. All the while these Mets are coming into the game having best'ed the Marlins in a 3-game series. The Mets have a lot going for them today

1. home field advantage

2. having best'ed a divsional rival in a 3-game series

3. Dodgers are struggling to score

4. Penny is still gaining a bit of respect with the sportsbooks so the odds are not as against them as they should be

We know the Mets are only 3-7L10 games but they've really reversed their fortunes by coming back home to roost... home teams are +58 units thus far this season. Much of the reason for the success of home teams is the parity in baseball... With parity, home field advantage becomes a more important factor.

So we converted the above statements into booleans to see how teams have done historically in these positions. We find that home teams in the first game of a series coming off a win against a divisional rival and going up against a team averaging less than 2 runs per game L4 is [27-10, +15 units] the past 4 seasons.

Going back to that home field advantage concept, we've found the home field advantage heightens when a team has not been winning many games. For example these Mets are 3-7 L10.... home favorites against non-divisional rivals in the first game of a series are [40-19, +12 units] dating back to the beginning of 2006 so long as they are coming off a win but have fewer than 5 wins L10 and their opponent is coming off a loss.

So teams in situations like these Mets definitely tend to take advantage of their home field advantage to get a win and straighten themselves out.